I’ve looked at variants along these lines, and my comments would be:
With an adequate tarp, you shouldn’t need a waterproof bivy, but the Recon bottom is 15D, just too fragile for me. So I prefer the MLD with 30D Silnylon. I do prefer the overall design of the Recon, if they made it with 30D bottom I’d switch.
But is the HMG an adequate tarp to cope with thunderstorms? I have not used one, but it looks like it has open ends, and it’s not very big so not much overhang. Looks like you might be in trouble in a Sierra thunderstorm if the wind starts blowing the wrong way. I think a Hexamid Solo tarp (with beak) is a better design to protect you from blowing rain than the HMG, and lighter.
Having said all that, with the bug pressure in the Sierra I wouldn’t choose Tarp+Bivy at all. When you stop in the evening and the bugs come, trying to eat dinner from inside your bivy is not a fun prospect. I think a Z-packs shelter with integrated netting is a much better choice for quality of life when there are bugs about. Solplex or Altaplex are around 1lb, so no weight penalty. Cuben is not an ideal material for the floor of a tent, it’s abrasion resistance is not great, but repair tape sticks really well, so it’s just a question of checking for pinholes fairly often.