Steve,
I have used the Nightlight/Thinlight combo down to the mid 30's without any discomfort, but I am sceptical that you could take it down into the teens(I have a BMR of 1350, although I'm not sure what that has to do with this problem; it is a function of weight*calorie constant/kg body weight, as I understand how it is calculated). One sure way to find out is to try it and see. It would also seem to me that as you graduate to thicker Thinlights you will, at some point, run into bulk problems; This may, or may not, matter depending on your pack, hiking style(trail, bushwhacking, scrambling, etc), but perhaps you might consider an inflatable pad/Thinlight combo at some point in that progression. In my case I rapidly reached that point, since a substantial portion of my trips are at least partially offtrail/bushwhack/scramble terrain where bulk, especially lashed to the outside of my pack is not a good option; For those trips I use a heavier(~5 oz) Montbell/Thinlight combo which has worked, so far, down into the mid 20's. I still use the Nightlight/Thinlight combo for trail hikes, however. One last thought: I have glued a ~8" section of an old Thinlight pad over the foot end of my working Thinlight(1/8" in both cases, to provide extra warmth/padding for my heels, which tend to compress the 1/8" foam and cause both discomfort and coldness for my heels, especially when I'm sleeping on my back. Would you please post back the results of your problem solving? This would be of interest to a lot of us, I'd bet.