I'll start by first thanking everyone for the responses – this community is really great!
Andy F – I'm dropping the extra cash for something durable in the rain jacket department just because I really hate to replace gear, and also because I'm trying to watch every ounce. At this point I think 4.8oz for a vented jacket is about the best I can do, and for the area I can expect steady rainfall fairly often.
I think you're right about the socks – I can wash the day socks at the campsite and dry them out, I only need one pair for a 3 day hike during the days and since those will be coolmax socks, I'm going to pack a pair for sleeping that is thicker merino wool (open to suggestions there).
I do have what I believe is the newest insulated air core – it feels really warm when I tried it out at home, so I'm hoping there aren't any cool spots, I'll have to try it out out back before I take it on a 3 day trip though.
I think I'm going with the mont-bell synthetic long sleeve in place of a fleece, I think it'll weigh less and compress a bit more. If it turns out not to be warm enough I'll replace it with the wool version. I have a Columbia fleece and it is pretty heavy and won't compress well. I'm not sure what the weight of it is, it's what I think is the "standard thickness", if that's bigger than 100 weight I'm not sure.
I added my prescription sunglasses, whistle, and a 2nd bic mini – as well as a 2oz silnylon pack cover (instead of a trash compactor bag, I don't like a wet pack).
I've had a heck of a time finding detailed topo maps of the LHHT but will keep looking.
I'll squeeze out more of the lotion and bug repellent but I'm super white so I'm going to keep the 1.8 oz of sunblock – I put it on like 5x a day usually (it's the hippy dippy stuff so it needs re-applied constantly).
A few people brought up the first aid kit weight – I cut it by a remarkable 50%, it's still a lot heavier than other people's kits but having lived in DC and having carried practically a full EMT kit daily, it's still over what other people carry here – 4.5oz. Here's the current manifest:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wn1EchWpXchNAYeoqBnk38ZdrR9SwjCKOOIHmFwKkqQ/edit?usp=sharing
Good call on the water, I'm probably carrying too much given the amount of streams I'll pass.
Andy Schill – Good to hear it's luxurious hiking, it'll be a good way to start out. I'll definitely be PM'ing you soon as I firm up more plans for the LHHT.
I'm planning on camping between shelters for at least parts of the trail where there shelters spaced too far apart, thus the tent. Good to know about the stocked privys.
I'm thinking paper coffee filters for prefiltering before the water hits the Sawyer Mini.
The puffy jacket in may thing – I feel like I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't. With my luck I'll freeze if I don't bring it but if I do bring it, I'm totally not going to need it with my luck.
I might bring tyvek regardless of shelter or tent – the Air Core seems really thin.
I ditched the bear bag for a coated silnylon 5L drybag and 40' of amsteel 1/16", dropped nearly 3oz.
Link – thanks for the links, I'm working through them.
Martin – thanks for confirming the bridge crossings info, that will let me drop my flip flops. I'll definitely be PM'ing you about which sections to take on first.
Thanks again all!