There's a lot of Frost Line/Mirage discussion in this thread:
https://www.backpackinglight.com/cgi-bin/backpackinglight/forums/thread_display.html?forum_thread_id=97078
Per the specs, the jackets should be similar in warmth. The frost line has 12% more cubic inches of down (6.7 x 800 vs 5.3 x 900) but it's also a little bigger cut so it's maybe 5% warmer on paper.
Generally I like paying more for a superior product, so naturally I lean towards the Mirage, but my winter parkas seen a lot of use/wear and that 7D fabric wouldn't look to good after a couple years. If Montbell made a 15oz Mirage with a 30D shell I'd be all over that, but since they don't I'm okay with carrying a few more ounces and saving $110 or so.
I like how Montbell cut 5oz of features off the Frost Line for 2014. Hopefully they take this a step further for next year, as they could trim another 2oz or so and provide a darn nice winter jacket @ 17.5oz and $200 without switching to materials that jack up the price (900FP down, 7D fabric).