I'm happy enough with Roger's explanation- tests or not- it passes the logic test, if not the laboratory one…
If there is a bottom line for me-
For a consumer-
You must trust your vendor/professional of choice to solve all these problems for you and deliver to you a product that performs as advertised. If these conditions are not met, you return said product and seek another vendor. Much like a shoe, you may also learn that this vendor runs 5* light and this one just right and compare accordingly in relation to your experience.
Doesn't matter what it takes- at the end of the day it weighs X, Costs, X and you wake up in the morning happy and rested or head home to the post office.
For MYOG-
I think, from my point of view at least, the conclusion is there is no expert. Somewhere, someplace, somehow- as you approach the limits of weight or efficiency the variables become too unknown. One must be sacrificed in favor of the other. Chase weight and suffer less than designed temps. Err on the side of warmth and loose an ounce or two and $20.
The only reliable formula is to produce a given shell often enough to allow you to choose your optimal OS relative to that shell. Then as this design gets into the field, tinkering results in less "returned" goods and more satisfied "customers" and you call it a success.
Likely you don't know exactly why or every variable that made it a success- you just lump all the unknowns into the convenient and useful "overstuff" and with single variable in hand proceed to make good products.
I still believe Overstuff is BS, and a great percentage of it is simply fill. I think some of the basic math I did supports this idea well enough. This gets my consumer dander up, having a bit of smoke blown up my arse.
But viewed with dispassion of the mathematician I must concede it is a remarkably simplified way to calculate things and must accept the fact that a "one shot" formula is not available. (Or sits deep in some corporate safe in the proprietary information section.)
It is frustrating in that I do not have a fixed shell to tinker with as of yet- but it is what it is.
Regardless of the 1/10th of CLO or other mysteries beyond my High School education- if nothing else the effort to review the EN system further muddies the waters on that score. If the best and brightest minds have been forced to develop a system with four different expected temps, we must also "agree to disagree" on exactly what each CLO per ounce buys you at the end of the day.
My summary-
Apex is good stuff into summer and early shoulder- a bit further for the warmer amongst us.
PL could use some exploration to bridge the grey area- but that is risky business, especially if sources of "middle weight" Apex is available beyond the High Loft variants.
Someplace around the time you need to Double up the Apex- Down makes more sense. (Thank you all for helping me to see why) Where exactly is determined by your moisture exposure, durability desires, goal weight, and experience.
This is a tougher choice for me personally, my mile pushing long hour days lead to rough treatment and a wet dirty sleeper for days on end- but that's a pretty specific problem that should have stayed out of the discussion. Water treated downs may even make this concern irrelevant and down once more is the current winner in the old Synthetic vs. Down leapfrog race.
Thanks All- I welcome more comment and discussion- it's certainly an important topic. In the UL quest especially- sleep system is the biggest remaining area to tinker (as mentioned in my 32 ounce problem thread, which is the motivator for this thread)
Or perhaps like this entire community seams to have realized- once you've slashed and burned to 5lbs- giving your self back 8 ounces leads to a much better experience and fewer headaches. Best not to dance on the edge too long, at some point you fall off the cliff.