I don't know if there is much to "figure out" about this, but I will add my two cents since I have changed a lot in the past 8 years (and I can talk about fitness forever even to the uninterested).
Coming out of high school I was skinny (although at the time I thought very muscular haha). 6'2 185 lbs with a little fat and a little muscle. When it was cold out, I was cold.
In college I got into bodybuilding. At my heaviest I was 230 at around 16-17% bodyfat (e.g. abs are just barely visible). I stayed pretty warm all the time, really warm when I was moving and warm enough when I was stopped.
In spring I would start getting down to ~10% bodyfat (abdominals are well defined when relaxed) and would stay plenty warm when moving but get cold fast when I stopped.
Now that I'm out of college I have pretty much settled into the body I want to stay in. Around 210 lbs and ~14% bodyfat. At this point I still stay plenty warm when I hike (I'll wear a long sleeve shirt and maybe another short sleeve underneath down to around 20F when moving) and stay warm long enough to get bundled up/ filter water/ set up camp. But this is just the easiest state to maintain for me and it looks good enough.
Long story short: Muscle will keep you warmer while moving, but isn't worth the weight and requires more calories. Fat will keep you warmer while still, but isn't worth the weight.
If UL hiking is your #1 priority, you should be as lean as possible with just enough leg muscle to get by. (Don't tell this to the UL blog writers though).
However if you had to be overweight (For years I was considered "obese" by BMI standards) you can see my vote is for de mooooooooseles.