Help! Plans/Gear are tanking due to changing temps

First, unless you want to spend more on a nicer pad, just get another Wal Mart blue CCF pad to put under your Z-Lite, as that'll keep you much better insulated from the ground at those temps.

Second, if your sleeping bag isn't enough insulation, wear all your clothes to sleep, but drape your down jacket over you inside of the sleeping bag (i've read somewhere here in the forums that that's a better way to keep you warm, but who knows).

You should be plenty warm with a 20* bag and wearing your around camp insulating layers. All you'll need to spend is $5 on a CCF pad to supplement your Z-Lite.

Also, make sure to eat a nice, warm meal right before bed. You'll want the warmth and calories so your body will stay warm. If critters/bears aren't a concern, keep some snacks with you to snack on during the night if you wake up. The extra calories will help keep you warm.

If your feet get cold, you can always stick them in your dry/stuff sacks to act as a vapor barrier and it'll add some warmth.

Other than that, it's important that you don't get sweaty while hiking, so even if it's chilly at first, dress lightly, as you'll work up enough body heat to stay warm. That way, once you get into camp, you can throw on the layers to keep that warmth, but if you're all sweaty from having hiked in several layers, that sweat will chill you once you're at rest.

You're probably over thinking it (that isn't to say that it's ok to not worry at all) since you haven't stayed out in that type of conditions, but it'll be a great learning experience for you and you'll be more confident in your skills and gear afterwards!

As for your friend, make sure he also packs enough warm stuff and food.

If you are miserable you can chalk it up to experience and character building. I've never once regretted going ahead with already-made plans due to weather.

The above advice by And E is sound. An extra pad and wearing your warm camp clothes should bump your sleep system enough to make it doable. Your buddy should also consider an extra pad to buff his hammock insulation; a soft flexible one like GossamerGear sells would be nice but any will do.

You should also bring extra fuel and boil hot water bottles (use wide-mouth Nalgenes only) to keep you warm at night if you are chilly. Put a sock or neoprene cozy around the bottle so you distribute heat more evenly.

If you don't have a good system for moving in cold weather I suggest trying a light fleece. Paired with a windbreaker you are unlikely to need anything extra during the day. I find a long sleeve base layer and a 200wt fleece vest to work well in subfreezing temps if you need a suggestion to get off the ground. Try to run cool and not get too damp from sweat. Bring a light hat and a heavy hat.

>> …drape your down jacket over you inside of the sleeping bag

I'll second this. I've used this method with a MontBell UL Down to take my WM Megalight down to +10F. It also becomes something of a neck draft tube and helps reduce heat loss out the face hole.

Given the gear you list, unless you are a cold sleeper, I'd say you'll be fine. Snickers bars right before bed work well.
Staying warm while hiking has never been a problem for me, especially on the uphills.

+1 to everything And E said. Well put!

If anything, I'd suggest that your friend bring along the hammock kit, BUT if it felt just too cold, he could use it for gear storage and join you in the duo. He will still need proper insulation underneath of him as you will, so if he has a closed celled foam pad in his system, that'll help.

Besides, a second warm body in that tent would certainly impact it's ambient temperature (and unfortunately, it's RH.)

I'll be on the Tecumseh Trail just about the same time you hit the Knobstone, and like you I've been watching the long range forecasts. At the moment I'm not too concerned because spring long range forecasts in Indiana tend to be all over the map – if you compare NWS to weather.com to forecast.io it's not unusual to see 10-15 degree differences in their 10-day-out guesses. I usually check all three and take my gut feeling. Forecast.io is especially useful because they'll show you all the individual models that they average together.

I'd be more concerned about your buddy than you: I remember my first chilly night in a hammock and I was very surprised to discover how MUCH colder it was than in a tent. So if he's low on hammocking experience, he may be in for a rude surprise. If he brings a cheap mylar survival blanket and has a foam pad, then he can always go to ground on top of the pad with the mylar + the hammock making an improvised bivy. Better than spending the whole night shivering.

If you're really worried toss a couple of Hot Hands twin-packs in your kit. They won't keep you super warm but they will get you through a colder than expected night if tucked into crotch and armpits inside your sleeping bag. Just keep a layer between them and bare skin.

Your decision isn't unusual for hiking plans. Either equip for what you expect or bail for another time. There's no sense in being miserable or putting yourself in danger for what is supposed to be recreation.

Perhaps you can rent bags to suit or double up with borrowed ones? The rest of it is just typical winter layering options. Cold is one thing; wind and precip are more challenging, especially for your shelter.

We have turned multiday trips into several day hikes and had a good time doing that. Like bumper sticker says, "The worst day hiking is better than the best day at work." :)

Eh, give it a go.
But keep your head warm in bed – very important. Your head will not feel cold, but your feet might.
Yeah, warm pad is essential.

Cheers

For me in hiking in the shoulder season I adjust my down jacket layer based on temps.

I have an Ex Light, a Patty Down Sweater, and a 2lb Winter Coat. When forcasted lows go below 20F I eat the lb of weight and toss in the heavy winter coat and take the extra thick base layer bottoms. This takes my 30F bag down to about 15F. (the jacket has about 16 oz of 550 down in it). I also add a walmart blue foam pad.

So if you have another winter coat, even if it adds a lot of weight, I would toss it in if you are pushing the boundaries of your gear and don't have a lot of experience with the your gear in the temps you will be facing.

I'd have thought somebody would have brought up using a VBL between your base layer and outer insulation by now… Seems a mantra of sorts.

I think you'll be ok down to 10-15F in that bag and all of your winter clothing, assuming thick down jacket and some type of insulated or thick fleece pants. As mentioned, you could use a VBL and probably be warm enough down to the same temps.

A ZLite plus a cheap 3/8" CCF would work on a few inches of snow or more, but you'll be ground cold on bare frozen ground or ice. I'd add at least one more torso-length CCF for that.

1.Be SURE to wear sweatproof VBL liners over thin poly liner socks and under your insulating socks. Wet (& thus cold) socks and boots are miserable in the morning and can lead to serious frostbite damage.

2.If you have removable insulating boot liners (highly recommended) DO take them out at night and put them in the foot of your sleeping bag to stay warm. Otherwise clean your boots as much as possible, put them in a plastic bag or WP stuffsack and inside your sleeping bag.

3. take a fresh pair of thin poly sock liners for each day. Put them on at night & then put on your thick "sleeping (only) socks".