I follow the thumb rule and the downward ramp walk test to ensure the toes make no contact. I have not yet bought a pair of boots or shoes that have not shrunk a little once they get wet, even with 100% synthetic materials including goretex.
Last year I bought a pair of Five Ten SAR canyoneering boots a full size bigger and they fit fine at first. These boots are designed to get wet and after two days hiking in a river they had contracted enough that my big toes were impacting. It 80K backcountry river hike and I lost a toenail.
I also have a pair of Solomon goretex boots that shrunk when they got wet and hurt my toes.
TipSolution for those with boots that are too small: I bought a set of wooden shoe stretchers with all wood and metal parts (no plastic). Put them in the boots (both pairs) and baked them in the oven for 5 hours at 140F. Then removed them and left stretchers in 2 days. It worked like a charm. I tried to find the level of heat necessary to soften the rubber materials so they would stretch gently but not too much to break down the glues or materials.
The goretex boots are still waterproof and both pairs now fit again!
Derrick