I have only been snow camping once, with the Sierra Club to learn how to camp in the snow and I did use a bivy and tarp.
Granted, this was in a snow grave or trench with a tarp pulled over the top to trap heat.
The bivy could be warmer for you in that it can help trap heat…maybe at 2.5 to 5 degrees F of warmth to your sleeping system.
This may be an advantange to you vs. the tent, which will only be a few degrees warmer than the temperatures outside.
My opinion is that a bivy is used with a tarp….the tarp to give you somme overhead protection from snow. (A frame pitch) This is assuming that you are camping out on the snow vs. building a snow shelter/trench, etc.
You can debate if the tarp will give you a micro climate of a few degrees of warmth vs. sleep out in the open.
Regarding the bivy….with all of the layers that you are wearing and using for your sleeping system, if the bivy is too small/constricting, it will reduce the loft of your clothing and sleeping bag, which will make you colder.
A wide bivy might be in order….either way, if you are using a bivy, make sure that you try it out at home to make sure you have plenty of room inside the bivy for you to side sleep, if you are a side sleeper, or to simply fit all of your worn clothing and sleeping bag in there without being compressed by the sides or top of the bivy bag.
The other thing to consider for your mental health….being in a bivy bag and under a tarp can be a problem if you are stuck in a snow storm for hours and hours.
A tent would give you the ability to sit up and move around where a bivy and tarp may not.
Also, I agree with the prior poster….your sleeping bag is on the edge of what you will need to stay warm. Consider renting a warmer sleeping bag from REI, if you have one near you. The 20F rating is just to keep you alive…not comfortable.
Hope this helps.
-Tony