Here's my thoughts:
Shelter:
You want your shelter to provide protection from the wind and rain (and bugs?). Don't count on much warmth from your shelter besides wind blocking, because it's far more efficient to put the weight into a warmer bag.
My favorite shelter for this is a cuben pyramid tent (ie. MLD DuoMid). They are extremely light (~14oz) and equally important, they are extremely fast and simple to pitch. It's normally just 4 stakes (one at each corner) and then shove a hiking pole in the middle. Add a 2-3 oz painters cloth groundsheet (maybe) and you're all set, unless it's bug season – in which case bring an inner net tent. Alternatively, grab two solo sized pyramid tents (~11oz ea). Go with silnylon (+5oz) if cost is a factor.
Sleeping Bag/Quilt
I find that when I'm pushing big mile days, I tend to sleep a lot warmer. Likely because metabolism is boosted and the body is keeping busy at night repairing damaged tissues. The obvious suggestion in this category is a down quilt. You say that you tend to get down wet from perspiration, but perhaps this is because (1) you're using it in bivy with low breathability or (2) you're using too warm of a down bag and/or (3) you're using a bag that doesn't have the same venting flexibility as a quilt. With a down quilt inside of a pyramid tent, it's hard to imagine getting it excessively soaked with soak in short order unless you've choosen one that is way too warm – even then you can open some gaps to let air circulate. So my suggestion is a 30-40F quilt from Zpacks at 12-15oz. It's hard to imagine going wrong with one of those – especially on a few day trip in mid-late summer.
Pad
The pad is a tough one. If I was sleeping solo I would bring a torso sized Ridgerest at ~8oz and combine that with my pack under my feet and a well selected spot. To sleep well on one of these, I really need to find soft ground with a nice dip for my hips. If I'm sharing a shelter with a partner, it's not that easy to find a a spot that is naturally landscaped to be comfortable for two (except for sand), so I tend to bring an inflatable pad. Sleeping poorly sucks when every hour of sleep is precious.
So overall, I think a great combo is: cuben MLD SoloMid (11oz) + 30F Zpacks Quilt (16oz) + torso Ridgerest (8oz). That's ~2 lbs for all the main components and it's quite a capable setup. You'd still need to factor in stakes and perhaps a groundsheet (2-3oz). I think a pyramid tarp is worth the extra 4oz over a bivy – it's so much nicer for riding out foul weather in.
If you want to share a shelter with your hiking partner, then a cuben MLD DuoMid (14oz) + 30F Zpacks Quilt (12oz) + torso sized inflating pad (ie. NeoAir @ 9oz) is a nice combo. Overall you're lighter per person, but the inflatable pad takes away from the simplicity and ease of the Ridgerest. You also really need the groundsheet with an inflatable pad to add some protection/safety margin.
So to actually answer your main question about allotting a set weight, the pad options don't vary much in weight, so count on 7-10oz there. Then put enough weight towards your sleeping quilt/bag to ensure you'll be warm enough to sleep, and then put the remainder towards the robust-ness of your shelter.