Hendrik Morkel, of the well-known UL blog Hiking In Finland, has posted a very comprehensive essay on the state of UL today, with contributions by Glen Van Peski, Colin Ibbotson, Chris Townsend, Ron Bell, and Andrew Skurka. Take a look.
For my part I would say that ultralight itself is not at all dead. People will continue to use the ideas that the UL movement generated. I do think, however, that perhaps the heretofore enthusiasm for the UL community might have died down. I’m not sure, why. Perhaps because the glitter of the new has gained a certain patina and people are getting distracted by other shiny new things. Or it could be because of the differences in ways of seeing things or in local voices and needs have drawn people away from the overly generalized tone of the overall community. Certainly the Europeans and the Japanese are off in their own UL worlds now, with almost no contributions by the Japanese here anymore. Which could be a language thing, of course.
Either way, the article is an interesting read. Have a look.

