I can remember multiple threads from a couple years ago saying that having a less breathable shell is a bad idea (especially with down bags) because it's easier for moisture to get in than out,
Just an observation but I hae notice in multiple post people having issues with condensation in Bivys made wit DWR breathable materials such as (M50). But I have also seen comment from people with Event bivys (less breathable than M50 but waterproof) Stating that they didn't have condensation issues. Such zas Jerry's "I weigh my bag after a trip and it weighs only slightly more – 28.3 ounces before, 28.7 after 6 day damp trip".
I don't think we can say that more breathable is better always better. In a bivy made from M50 air flows in and out so fast the temperature inside will probably be very close to the outside temperatures. If the air temperature drops to the dew point. the air inside will quickly follow and condensation will inside will occur. In an Event bivy the flow of air in and out is restricted. As a result a persons body heat will start to influence the temperature inside the bivy. If a persons body temperature can keep air temperature inside the bivy above the dew point, condensation may form outside the Bivy while the inside of the bivy stays dry.
So I think there might be a optimal range of breathability for a Bivy. If you have too much you will get condensation when the outside temperature drops below the dew point. If you have to little the humidity inside will build up until you get condensation inside even it the outside air stayed above the dew point. Between those two values I think you might have a bivy that will stay dry even if the outside air is at the dew point.
I don't know if this is true but it is worth considering.