Okay, here's what I think.
I think that a waterproof bivy is fine, as long as you have a VBL on, so you don't shed your body moisture to be trapped into the bag.
This way, the insulation layer is protected from moisture build-up from both sides.
Ultimately, the waterproof bivy prevents water from going thru it, so if water condenses on the outside, or even if it gets rained on, it is of no consequence.
All we need to do after that, is make sure that no water condenses on the inside of it.
I think the answer is something like a AMK SOL aluminized polythelylene emergency bivy over the sleeping bag or quilt, and some VBL coverage over your body. This will prevent most/all moisture from collecting in between the VBL and the SOL bivy, but there will always be ambient humidity in the air which may be a concern. The radiant reflective barrier of the SOL bivy captures the body-heated air and retains much of it inside the bivy, since it doesn't breathe. It traps the heated air in, and so it keeps the interior of the waterproof bivy warm, and over the dew point.
The result is that your body produces its own "micro climate" inside the VBL layer, the insulation layer of your bag/quilt is kept free of condensation, and anything which condenses outside which is beyond your control is kept out by the waterproof bivy.
This is the same way that a heater rod works in a gun safe or a closet for de-humidifying. It just keeps the temp high enough to stop condensation, by giving out a little heat in the confined area.
A AMK SOL emergency bivy weighs like 3.5 ounces or something like that. It's not heavy, and it stuffs very very small for packing. And for a person under a minimalist tarp coverage, it could be a welcome addition during rain or humid seasons. You just have to accommodate it with the VBL inside the sleeping bag, so that you don't create a problem by using it.
You could even use one SOL emergency bivy outside, and one as the VBL layer inside your sleeping bag.
And you will likely find that you don't have to carry as heavy of a sleeping bag with this arrangement, too.
I know people are resistant to VBL, but if you understand them and use them properly, they can solve some problems.