AT NOBO late Feb start

I don't think you need to buy anything.

This time of year I'd want the Duomid and the Versalite. Not sure about the pad – I've not used a Neoair, and would take my Prolite 4, but if you think the Neoair is good down into single digits, that might work. A 3/4 CCF pad might extend the warmth a bit. I find that most of my cold nights can be attributed to lack of insulation in my pad. If you think you might sleep in shelters, you'll want extra pad insulation. (And they are awfully tempting on a cold wet day.)

For clothing, I'd take the warmest down jacket, which I think is the Patagonia pullover, and plan to pair it with the fleece shirt or the cap 4. I'd probably bring both tops – there are days I would want to have the 100-wt fleece to hike in, and something like the Cap 4 to put on in camp. Not sure about down pants, might be very useful around camp and to extend the bag. I often bring Powerstretch tights for this purpose. I would definitely bring the wool long johns, but I like hiking in long johns and shorts on cold days – your soft shell pants might be better.

It's been a weird winter here in NC. Lots of rain, not very cold overall, but some short, brutal cold snaps. I'd expect wet weather with moderate temps (for the winter), but be prepared for the occasional very cold night. And of course March can bring a lot of snow, but who knows anymore?

Have a great hike.

Thanks Ken…you're comments are exactly in line with what I usually pack this time of year: duomid, versalite, 100 wt fleece, down puffy. My neoair is the all season version, so it'll be plenty warm.

I guess I was hoping someone would tell me to pack my hammock because it's so much more comfy and convenient, but I think there's too much of a chance for another cold snap in the next few weeks. I could probably make it work with the down pants, but I hate to experiment on a long trip. Plus I'd probably have to use a larger pack that's not quite as comfortable.

Might pack some tall gaiters too, more for mud than for snow.

The gaiters might help for post hole'n up in the Smokies.

I also wouldn't start tha AT with a 30* bag until April at the soonest.

True about the Smokies…I wonder how much snow is up there. If anyone was up there this weekend, please let me know. I'm sure it's manageable, but just might slow me down a little. I don't plan to rush through that section anyway and might even make a couple detours to see some favorite places.

The thoughts with the 30* bag were to use the synthetic quilt with lots of warm layers (or a 30* down quilt) beneath. I've taken it into the high teens doing that before and could probably go lower. I think I've resolved to just carry the Versalite and sleep on the ground, though. Too much chance for a serious cold snap in the next few weeks.

With the erratic winter we've had I'd bring the 10* and the Duomid. Better to add a little weight that will all be going towards comfort and safety in case we get a crazy snow load or a cold snap. When I went through the Smokies last year in April we got a low of 18* with a light ice storm…..for February I'd want better security against the cold then my 35* WM would offer. Just a thought

Purchase Knob webcam doesn't show much snow. The weather section shows 2 inches last nigh at Mt LeConte and 2.5 inches on the ground. Not sure how accurate the snow readings are, but doesn't sound like much on the ground. I think areas around Wytheville, VA were forecasted to get more. The latest webcam at Grayson Highland was 5:50 this morning, so can't really tell how much snow they received.

Agree with others on the gear.

Brad

I would say, go with the following:

Neoair all season
Duomid
Katabatic quilt
warmest down parka
down pants
VBL socks (plastic fruit bags)
Westcomb Rain jacket
Reed pants
Softshell pants
Smartwool long johns
Fleece or cap 4 (whichever you like more)
Houdini

With those items you have a lot of versatility in layering for the surely varied conditions in the weird SE winter

With the down suit you will be warm around camp and in the mornings while giving your bag a big boost. Add rain gear under your down as a VBL and you will get another boost in temp rating, although I cannot say how much you will personally get.

Otherwise your 10 degree bag would be plenty warm although not as light. If you go that route ditch the down pants and maybe go with synthetic insulated jacket?