So this summer I am going to start doing some long distance trail runs in Banff. The distances I am looking at are between 50 and 80k (30 to 50 miles). Given the remoteness of the area I figure if I were to sprain an ankle I would have to spend the night out. And since the terrain is rocky and has significant elevation in it I expect that there might be a 5% chance of that happening so I want more than just a space blanket that I carry on shorter day hikes. I need to be able to surrvive (not die and be able to self evacuate if I can still walk) down to a temperature of about -10 C (15f). (-10 is an extreme temperature for where I will be in July but 0C 32F is common.)
My thoughts of suitable options are as follows
1) Blizzard Bag (half to buy) plus Montbell UL down and 1/8" sulak pad (have to buy). Total weight 13 + 8 + 2 = 23 oz
2) Montbell #3 down hugger plus space blanket bivy plus 1/8 sulak pad 20 + 3.5 + 2 = 25.5 oz
3) Montbell #3 plus Monk tarp from MLD (Have to buy) plus 1/8 sulak pad 20 + 10 + 2 = 32 oz
I will also be bringing a touque and mitts with all the options as well.
I am leary of the second option because I think the sleeping bag will get soaked from condensation using a non-breathable space blanket and become useless in the night. With option one the blizzard bag will give me 40 deg insulation so even if the jacket becomes useless I still have some insulation. The 3rd option might be the best in terms of warmth but it is the most costly, bulky, and heaviest. I also think that it might be useful to have an insulating layer to use at rest breaks so bringing the UL down jacket would have other benefits as well.
For active clothes I am thinking just a long sleeve base layer plus a wind shirt. And for rain protection just a 2oz emergency poncho and a check of the weather forcast before I go (although it can always change in the mountains).
So any thoughts or alternative ideas.
Eventually I want to expand these runs to two days and 100 miles and then I need to consider whether it is a good idea to intentionally plan on using a blizzard bag

