NYC Marathon

Amazing.

Amazing race.

I wonder if we'll live to see someone break the 2:00:00 barrier…

For perspective, 2:10 was broken in 1967 (Derek Clayton, Australia, 2:09:36.4)…It took 36 years to shave 5 minutes off of that record (2003- Paul Tergat, Kenya, 2:04:55).

Who knows how long it could take- if ever. Nobody has ever run sub-2:03; for all we know, 2:03 could stand for a decade or more.

"Who knows how long it could take- if ever. Nobody has ever run sub-2:03; for all we know, 2:03 could stand for a decade or more"

Personally, I'm keeping my eye on the 10K world record, currently 26:17.53. When that goes under 26:00:00, I'll start watching the marathon record very closely when the guy who did it moves up to the marathon.

Tom,

As a fan I much prefer a 10K on a track. But I think the sub 2 hour marathon will go down first…

Without looking it up, seems like it has been about 10 years between the last two 10K world records, both times reducing it by ~5 seconds each time. Most distance runners make little money, and the big bucks are in the marathon… free market theory here :)

So when a distance runner gets under 27 minutes they start looking at 1/2 and full marathons as a source of income, especially the east Africans.

I actually predicted a few years ago that Samuel Wanjiru could break 2 hours. Remember he broke the 1/2 Marathon world record as a junior (he was 18), is the only Kenyan to win an Olympic marathon, and most marathoners hit their peak around 30 or so. His best was 2:03 and change, if I remember correctly. I think he was the highest paid distance runner in 2010 (around $600K)…

… but alas, at the young age 24 his wife found him bed with another woman and somehow he fell off the balcony to his death a few minutes later. There has got to be a moral in that story :)

"There has got to be a moral in that story :)"

Always have affairs on the 1st floor?

"As a fan I much prefer a 10K on a track. But I think the sub 2 hour marathon will go down first…"

I'm not sure enough to challenge that, Nick. But it's interesting to note that of the 2 who have broken 2:04:00, Gebreselassie in 2008(2:03:56), and Patrick Makau(2:03:38-pending recognition) in 2011, Gebreselassie has the 2nd best 10K time ever, and Makau isn't even on the top 25 10K all time list. Looks like it could go either way on the face of it. I'm just a big believer in getting the high aerobic threshold first, then moving up in distance.

"So when a distance runner gets under 27 minutes they start looking at 1/2 and full marathons as a source of income, especially the east Africans." And especially the Kenyans. They even have a Swahili name for the guys that win the NY Marathon, or used to anyway. They call them the "wa benzi", Mercedes Benz people. ;)

One thing I'm fairly certain of is that the 1st guy to go under 2:00:00 won't be a native born American.

"… but alas, at the young age 24 his wife found him bed with another woman and somehow he fell off the balcony to his death a few minutes later. There has got to be a moral in that story :)"

Yeah, keep the 11th Commandment. ;=)

This year has been insane for the Kenyans. Every major marathon has been won by a Kenyan this year, and every time a course record was set.

Interesting article on marathon standards and Kenyan dominance here:
http://www.sportsscientists.com/2011/11/marathon-era-seismic-shift-and.html

+1 Steven