Do YOU really need a bivy with a poncho tarp? I know it's a major faux pas to answer a question with questions, but giving you a concrete answer would be a pleasant exercise in futility. We need some more information here.
How polished are your tarp skills? Do you have a practical knowledge and gained experience using a poncho tarp where YOU intend to backpack?
Do you know what the weather conditions will be like or how those weather conditions in conjunction with your intended location may alter in the event a low pressure system passes through? Check the NOAA AWS website leading up to your trip, this is a great resource that can help you in your shelter decision making process as you plan your next outing. Lots of variables to consider in deciding on a shelter for a trip.
Personally, I only take a poncho tarp and bivy in my pack when I know the weather window is projected to be mild, factoring in the worst case scenarios as well as my ability to manage those pieces of kit under a given set of conditions. I know my limitations, and pack accordingly, if there's a good chance wind and water will make their way under my tarp and compromise my insulation…. then I'll pack a more appropriate shelter for my tastes.
Alright, I'm rambling, good luck.