I've been struggling with this math too.
I've been using an 8×10 Sil tarp at 13oz. I don't really need a bivy with it for rain because it's huge. Maybe a bug net, but we'll leave that off the table for now.
I got a 9oz 5×9 poncho tarp to save weight. When I set it up and got under it I quickly realized that I'd be in trouble with any blowing rain. I could pitch it to the ground but then I can't sit up. So I need to add a 7oz bivy? Now my shelter is 16oz.
Sure a poncho is dual use but I normally don't carry rain gear (I use a garbage bag or one of those $1 emergency ponchos) so I guess there is no real weight savings for me.
If I want to stay bivyless and save weight, maybe an 8×10 or 8×8 cuben tarp is the only reasonable upgrade?

