A poncho won't add anything to the polycro. Rolling the edges of any ground sheet underneath will create a small ridge and *help* keep any running water under the ground sheet rather than running over the top. If the campsite is right, you can sweep debris to make a bump around your sleeping pad and raise the edge of your ground tarp. I have made a vee of material on the high side of my site to help divert water. In the old days, we would dig a slight groove to do the same, but Leave No Trace principals frown on that now. Of course, site selection is paramount, but you don't have good options all the time and heavily used sites have depressions in compacted soil that collect water.
Also, bathtub floors don't usually stand on their own; the ones I have used have attachments to hook to the shelter and hold the edges upright.
It is entirely possible to make a bathtub floor of Tyvek, using tape in the corners. I've done just that and it is quick. How well the sides stand up after folding and use is the question. Some sort of staking or inventing some light plastic braces would help.
Of course you can just buy a bathtub floor from a manufactured tent like a GoLite in the dimensions you require. As above, it will need help on the sides.
Any light rain gear used under your body weight will get damaged sooner or later. I appreciate that you are trying to get multiple use from a poncho, and it may add up on paper, but doesn't prove out in practical use.