I think the companies with the most to fear are the ones tied to retail channels. Mainstream companies like MSR, Big Agnes etc can’t abandon retail since it forms the majority of their sales, so they are stuck with retail markup in their price even for the portion of sales that in online since they can’t undercut their retailers. Hard to convince a customer to pay 50% more when that money is going towards markup and not a higher end product.
Some companies sell online but don’t produce at scale (e.g. smaller shops like MLD, Yama, Seek Outside etc) where they also don’t have a price advantage over mainstream companies but at least you’re paying for handbuilt rather than markup. Enough people are into that to support those companies.
By far the most efficient businesses are the ones that sell primarily online AND produce at scale. That’s myself (Durston), TarpTent, Gossamer Gear, 3F UL, SMD etc. Some of these companies still price in line with mainstream companies and enjoy the lofty margins (at least for the time being), but most pass that cost savings on to the customer since it yields increased sales and in the longer run increased competition will trim the margins.
We might see a $135 X-Mid knock off come out of Asia but I’m not particularly worried about it because we already have a very efficient business model and pass the savings onto the customer, so there is no way to substantially undercut the $220 X-Mid 1P price other than cheapening the product. Sure someone could produce a $135 version, but it wouldn’t come out of a top tier factory. It would probably mean giving up double stitching, properly finished edges, seam taping, double coated fabrics, premium hardware etc and accepting basic construction methods and materials. Certainly some people would be into that but a lot of people would pay an extra $85 for much higher quality and a proven product. If we were marking it up 200% like a few companies are then I’d be a lot more worried about getting undercut.
Basically selling direct is a good way to lower prices but cheapening the product isn’t nearly as attractive to customers. We’ll continue to see an increase in online sales, but I don’t think a major shift from higher quality to lower quality.