"Hmm…one of the reasons I don't like web forums as well as usenet is that most web forum software makes it extremely difficult to have any kind of organized, logical discussion of a subthread like this. I can't even figure out a good way on BPL to refer to a specific post within a thread, other than by giving the date and time."
Yeah, wouldn't it be nice if we could all sit around a table with some beers and bat this back and forth? But it is what it is.
"For the reasons given in my post on 08/02/2010 17:48:19, page 1, I don't think the 4.5 lb figure for my weight loss has enough precision to mean anything. In any case, a sample size of 10 is small enough. Focusing on one data point — me — out of the 10 is really not a good idea."
If your controls were that loose, why in the world did you even bother to mention it? I agree, it would not be a valid data point if you were dressed in street clothes and just back from a prime rib dinner and a couple pints of beer. However, you are not the only data point in this thread. Derek Goffin, Greg Gressel, John Vance David Lutz and Brian Senez, have all weighed in on the subject, a couple of them with some degree of precision. It also tracks with my own experience, which I have gone into in considerable detail in threads past.
"Your first quote above says you think I will find myself "in trouble." The point of my quote above is that I did not find myself in trouble. The hike went fine. I was always satiated, felt great, had plenty of energy, and exited with a huge amount of uneaten food."
I edited my original post to reflect the fact that I misread your original statement and deleted the comment upon which it was based. I will restate here. Yup, I misread it and withdraw my comment. I will add that the reason you felt so strong may have had something to do with that 4.5 pounds or whatever that you lost. You had to get the calories somewhere.
"For the reasons given in my post on 08/06/2010 12:39:06, page 3, I don't think any of the data collected from BPL members tell us anything useful about calories expended, only about calories eaten. That's why I analyzed the figures from the AT through-hikers, which do tell us about calories expended."
Maybe a more well designed questionnaire would get the ball rolling. In its absence the folks I mentioned above did their best to fill in the blanks. Many of the folks here on BPL are highly experienced and definitely have worthwhile data to contribute if the questions are put to them in an organized and comprehensive fashion.
I would recommend that, in your spare time, you browse through past threads on this subject(there are several) and take a look at the Arctic1000 website writeup on food, as well as Kevin Sawchuck's post on food in his Parcour de Wild trip report. Body fat figures heavily in all of the above sources. It's not a hypothesis, but has been very thoroughly studied by exercise physiologists. Specific measurements for a subset of the BPL community, AT through hikers, or whatever group you choose may be an interesting project, but I doubt very much if you will end up shedding new light on the subject. In the end each person is going to have to adapt the technique to their particular style of backpacking, if they so choose, and refine it through trial and error. We're each unique, but our bodies all operate according to the same basic principles.