Clothing list for cold weather

I think I would be cold with that list.
you need a puffy layer then you can ditch one of the long sleeve shirts.
I would pick up on of the eddie bower down jackets that are on pretty good sale right now. Or some other puffy layer.

you need more insulation…down or primaloft depending on how wet it will be. one layer, a 15oz down jacket and a windshirt will keep you warmer than you think. i would ditch the marmot driclime and replace with down/primaloft. Packa works as a substitute.

montbell alpine light (warmer)or a thermawrap (lighter) would be my go to. or patagonia down sweater. or get the red eddie bauer first ascent on sale.

I agree–get a puffy jacket and ditch the Smartwool. Just be sure to keep the jacket dry! That gives you two layers (t-shirt and warmer top base layer) to wear while you're moving, which even close to freezing should be enough (you don't want to sweat!). Also, there are much lighter windshirts that weigh 3-4 oz. which would be far more versatile than the Marmot DriClime. I'm perpetually amazed at how warm my 3-oz. windshirt is! Or, as suggested, just use the Packa to keep the wind off.

Gloves weren't mentioned; at least get a pair of thin liner gloves so you can do camp chores without having to take them off–better than thicker gloves or mittens which are not warmer when you have to keep removing them, lol!

I'd also ditch one of the boxer shorts. If, as a female, I can get by with the underpants I'm wearing (also Ex-Officio, I love them) for 10 days, you certainly can. If they need to be washed out, pick a warm dry day and go without while they're drying on the outside of your pack.

Personally, I'd add a thick wool sweater from the thrift store or a down jacket.

From what I've read, it's likely you'll be cold with that pad. Think about bringing a torso foam pad too.