“Taking the highest concentration measured in the Sierra (0.108), we can make some calculations. The probability of finding 10 or more cysts in a liter of water—to have at least a one-third chance of contracting giardiasis—is about 10-17. Ten cysts in 10 liters of water, about 10-7. In fact, one would have to drink over 89 liters to have a 50 percent probability of ingesting 10 or more cysts.” (Rockwell, 2003)
This is an interesting bit of statistics. 89 liters seems like a lot, but really that’s only about 14 days of consumption for me. So worst case according to these stats in the sierras is a 50% chance of contracting giardia over a longer hike. That seems pretty high to me.
Of course we all would do our best to avoid the worst sources. So the odds are lower. Maybe only 1 in 100? 1 in 1000?
All I know is that the 1 is a real number that the statistics can not eliminate as myth. And I never want to be that 1 again.