Tomorrow I am going out on a three day walk of a relatively level area at 1,500 meters (5,000') in the mountains north of Tokyo. The temperature at night will likely reach down to around -15º C (5º F). Snow is a very good possibility, but probably no more than 30 cm (1 ft) or so deep. I have quite a lot of experience camping down to around 5º C, but not much (only three times) below that. I'm worried about my clothing/ sleeping set up and wonder if people could tell me if I have too much, enough, or not enough gear (I tend to sleep a little hot, but also toss and turn a lot when I sleep, so my Rocky Mountain Sniveler quilt is out for winter conditions):
• Shelter: Either Terra Nova Laser Competition (modified with extra guy out points) or MLD Doumid
• Sleeping Bag: Marmot Pinnacle (rated to 15º F) or Montbell UL Alpine Downhugger #3 (I'd say it's too light, but maybe my clothing will make up for that)
• Full length blue closed-cell foam mat
• 3/4 length Montbell UL Comfort self-inflating sleep mat
• Montbell Dry-tec sleeping bag cover (if I go with the Duomid)
• Polycro ground sheet (if I go with the Duomid)
____________________________
• Finetrack SS mesh t-shirt
• Finetrack mesh underpants
• Icebreaker LS 150 weight baselayer shirt
• Icebreaker 150 weight underpants
• Paramo Explorer Shirt (high wicking, similar to 100 weight Polotec)
• Finetrack Drought Sensor Tights (for use in camp and sleeping)
• Paramo Velez Adventure Pants (Very highly breathable, waterproof pants with light insulation inside. They dry very fast… but I'm worried about bringing wet pants into the shelter and having them as a vital part of the sleep system if they are wet)
• Montane Lightspeed Wind Shirt
• Paramo Cascada Rain Jacket (I was thinking of bring the lighter and shorter Velez Adventure Light Smock, but I'd prefer the longer coverage in colder weather)
• Patagonia Down Pullover Hoodie or Mountain Hardwear Chugach Synthetic Fill Jacket (with modified Montane Pertex Pile Hood attached)
• Montbell Thermowrap Pants
• 200 weight fleece beanie
• 100 weight fleece neck gaitor
I don't know, writing it down again here makes me think I may have too much. Any thoughts?
It will likely be quite warm during the day… and I may not even need a jacket. However, there have been heavy rains during the day and snow at night over the last two weeks, so I'm worried about the very varied conditions)

