"My experience is that in a major downpour, water will find its way through if there is a way through, even when the way is not apparent to the naked eye.
I'll go with that theory, although I'm still surprised at how *much* got through"
It can be amazing, at least in my experience of dealing with houses and hurricanes or major northeasters; one minute it's dry, the next its pouring. ( usually after many hours of being dry ) There was a very active thread back in 2008 begun by Miguel D Arboleda discussing his experience with a silnylon tarptent. Though my experiece is with houses and not tents or tarps I can add the following apparent observations regarding leakage in fairly major rain/wind situations.
The combination of time and pressure seems to be the key. Water will get pushed into and begin to permeate materials and "channels" it would not seem possible for it to penetrate given enough time and pressure. Once the penetration is complete through the "barrier" a syphoning effect begins to occur. This can be relatively quite pronounced and abrubt. It appears to many local observers regarding buildings that there seems to be some sort of pressure differential at work where the lower pressure inside is literally pulling the water through the established channel. Maybe also there is that quality of water; it's viscosity or whatever ( help me here! ) that also creates a situation where the water that has made the penetration seems to be pulling other water through. Anyway the appearance or experience is that there was no leak and now it's just pouring. I would expect this is what Samuel C. Farrington is observing and I would think it would be the rule in high pressure/long period situations with any fault or "channel".
Miguel's experience would seem to be an outlier; where really large amounts of water can get pushed through fabric that is generally speaking water-proof; that with enough volume and pressure the fabric gets soaked and the circuit then connects; water can begin to travel through the fabric in greater volume.
But of course I'm no scientist or have no particular knowledge of fabric and the associated physics.