Jeff,
Having just spent 12-13 hours under my tarp and bivy this past weekend just below Mt. Whitney at Trail Camp (12k ft), the biggest issue that I would have is the lack of ability to move around and sit up.
My friends had a Gatewood Cape and a MLD Duo Mid.
I was quite envious of their ability to sit up and move around a bit where I was limited to laying on my side in my open bivy….if I had raised the height of my bivy more, I might have been able to sit up, but at the expense of losing wind protection.
I think that the bivy and tarp worked fine for me. I stayed warm and dry (I have an eVent MLD Bivy). However the better question might be, "How comfortable you will be with that much time being "stuck" in or under your shelter?"
Having experienced 12-13 hrs laying in my bivy under my tarp, I would shudder to think what 38 hours might be like.
Maybe it is time for me to invest in a video iPod…carry a book….bring my wife with me to pass the time. :)
Ask for your question, I do have a Contrail and I have also used it in a storm…depending on how hard the rain was failing, I guess it might be possible for the pressure per sq inch on the silnylon might force water through the fabric.
There are so mnay variables that it makes it hard to answer the question….if there are hard winds blowing the rain sideways, then in a tarp you are really relying on your bivy for a lot of protection….in that case an eVent bivy would be the way to go vs. a water resistant bivy.
Size of tarp too can give a lot more protection, if it is big enough to be pinned down to the ground on the edges and the back end….leaving just the front/head end open. Problem with this again is that you might have very little to no room to sit up.
Seam sealing is important too.
Anyway, I am rambling, but the answer is going to be maybe, depending on size of tarp/tarp configuration, and how water prrof/water resistant is your bivy.
-Tony