Pj’s advice to hike your own hike was perfect, as was Stephen’s to balance weight, warmth, and comfort.
It’s easy to be seduced by light weight (and the bragging rights that go with a 5-pound base weight.) I know I was. But I found that I didn’t sleep as comfortably. That wasn’t a problem on one-night weekends. But, by the second or third night of using a Nightlite pad, my hips were extremely stiff and sore (OK, I’ll admit that I’m a creaky old fart – but I also frequently sleep on rock ledges for the low impact and the view) – which made the pack ride worse, which made the trip less fun. I finally woke up, and now gladly carry a Thermarest Prolite 3 – not the lightest, but it works for me.
You may find yourself using several pads – a torso length closed cell pad in the summer, when you’re on forest duff, a thicker and longer (bulkier) Nightlight-style pad for cooler weather (or, like pj suggested, two pads), and a self-inflater for hard surfaces or colder weather. There may not be any one right answer.
At the risk of having my membership to BPL cancelled, and being hunted down like a dog by pj – ;) – light weight isn’t everything.