2016 PCT Thru-Hike; Convince Me re: Start Date

I would probably fall between Yogi and the net.

1. BE very careful taking advice about dates and snow from recent PCT hikers.  It has been five years since we have seen even a moderately high snow year. All those hikers in ’12-’15 that say you can head into the Sierra in mid-May hasn’t seen major snow in the Sierra.
2. yogi is writing a guide for an average PCT hiker.  That is a very broad range and for many what she says is true.  Like everyone, you have to know your capabilities.

Here is my suggestion.  Delay the decision as long as possible to see where the snow levels head.  On postholers web site he used to give a Sierra Entry date suggestion based on the current years snow.  Whether he still does or not, this is the key consideration.  Pick your target Sierra entry and work backwards.  Under no circumstance would I recommend a May Sierra Entry date.

The negative of starting early is that you will likely have a more expensive trip.  The earlier you start the higher number of days of marginal weather which drives hikers into town where they spend lots of money.  If you are on a tight budget this is a factor to consider.

If you start early you should be prepared for snow around San Jacinto and Baden Powell,  you may see it elsewhere but those will be the places to watch.  I would suggest carrying micro-spikes starting at Paradise Cafe, assuming they route (and you go) the trail back over San Jacinto and Fuller ridge.

Keep an eye on http://adzpctko.org (annual day zero pct kick off) as well). They base their date around snow conditions and will help give you an idea of a good time to start. Given the number of people on the trail they encourage hikers to start independently of their event but it will still help you pick your date, a couple of weeks before should be fine.

On logistics, if you shop in towns along the trail rather than mailing all your supplies it keeps the trip much more flexible, both in terms of pace and what you are going to eat and how much. There are a couple of spots you need to mail yourself supplies but that can easily be done from two stops ahead. Enjoy.

It’s an El Niño year, meaning way above average precipitation. Right now there is over 4′ of snow in the San Jacinto and San Bernardino Mountains. During El Niño we often get most of our snow during February and March, so as Malto recommended, try and delay your start as long as possible.

In 2011 most hikers had a particularly difficult time in the San Jacintos and the San Bernardinos weren’t much better. Lots of hikers ended up skipping the Sierra, although some came back later and finished that section.

Right now it is too difficult to predict snow levels.

The new permit system does make it difficult for hikers to time based on snow levels – it looks like most of the April permits were gone within 1 day of the system opening up.  Since it looks like it will be an average to high snow year, a March start seems too early unless you plan on going very slow AND are prepared to deal with snow in higher elevation areas of SoCal.  If I had to commit at this point, I’d probably use the traditional June 15 Sierra entry date and then back-calculate with your best guess at daily mileage and number of zeros for SoCal.  Also consider whether you’re willing (and can afford) to hang out in Mojave/Tehachapi or KM for a while if you end up ahead of schedule or if the snow is still too high as you approach Kennedy Meadows.

“Also consider whether you’re willing (and can afford) to hang out in Mojave/Tehachapi or KM”

Lauren is thinking what I was thinking:  If you have the schedule flexibility, start early, go slow (especially if the snow isn’t melting quickly), and keep reassessing.

If you have the financial flexibility to take a side trip before heading up into the Sierra – it could be to any number of lower elevation attractions in the West – you could continue your PCT a few weeks later when the snow is more completely gone.

I think folks have provided some excellent feedback.  This year is shaping up to be the biggest snow year since 2011.  I started early (April 18) in 2006. another big snow year.  I some of the toughest snow conditions on Mt San Jacinto and Fuller Ridge.  So in addition to following http://www.postholer for Sierra conditions, I recommend following the Mt San Jacinto hiking forum to track conditions in this area (www.mtsanjacinto.info).  If I were northbounding this year I probably would not start before May 1.

I agree; excellent feedback everybody!

Michael, and others who hiked during a high snow year, can you describe your experience? Or point me to a place where you’ve already described it, if you kept a blog at that time? I’m curious to know what facing high snow would really mean. If it’s just slowed pace, I can deal with that. I suppose I’m asking you to translate for me; if I look at one of these sites and it says to expect 6′ of snow, what is that like compared to 12′? If I’m walking on top of it, what does it matter if there are 4′ or 40′?

One person with whom I’ve been corresponding is Ned Tibbits, who directs Mountain Education, Inc (I met him on pct-l). Now, they teach about snow hiking, so he’s going to be on the extra-comfortable side of hiking in snowy conditions, but he seems to think that the extra snow doesn’t add all that many risks, though it does slow one down. Hiking in snow is hiking in snow is hiking in snow. High snow years might mean more snowy areas (hence the slowing down), but he doesn’t describe much qualitative difference between the snowy areas of low snow years and the snowy areas of high snow years. These aren’t his words, exactly – so I apologize to Ned if I’m misconstruing our conversations! – but this is more or less what I’ve gathered from our long exchanges. He has a post about start dates here, so you can read some of his own words! http://mountaineducation.org/pct-starting-date-and-fear/

Much of the resources page of this website has information about snow hiking and about PCT thru-hiking. I’ve not yet gone through all of the articles, but I intend to. Registration was free.

Thoughts for others who’ve had the experience of hiking in high snow years?

Thanks!

2010 was a pretty good snow year. By the time I got out of the the Sierra I was tired of it.  You say you don’t mind slow, but by the time you get to the Seirra you will probably be thinking a little more seriously about how many miles you have to hit every day. Besides the overall trip goals there is the question of how much you are going to be carrying and where you are going to resupply going through. This is a long roadless stretch. Along with the slower walking more snow can also make route finding harder. In the upper basins it is not that big a deal, just slog towards the pass. But the more snow there is the lower it goes and in the woods it can be a lot trickier and slow you down a lot. And if you are one of the front runners you will not have the benefit of those who have gone before you. This goes for the San Jancintos too. They were a pain to get through and I started behind the pack. A lot of those who started ahead ended up hitching and skipping around because of conditions.

So, going early in a snow year can be done but it will not only slow you down but beat you up more and could leave you pretty worn out by the time you get through.

Do a Google search for “Balls and Sunshine.” Balls kept a journal of their 2011 PCT thru. They didn’t skip the Sierra. Oh, and Sunshine was 9 or 10 years old.

@jpapini wrote “If I’m walking on top of it, what does it matter if there are 4′ or 40’…” — you’re right, it doesn’t matter.  The depth of the snowpack doesn’t matter, the breadth of it does.  So if you’re walking on 40′ of it at some point, you could loose 4000′ and still be on snow, walk 60 miles and still be on snow, etc.  A big snow year is challenging because the snow continues down into the valleys — not limited to couple miles either side of 12,000′ foot passes.  The other thing I’ll mention is that hiking on snow is ‘slow’, yes, but it’s slow because it’s *hard* work.  It’s not slow in the abstract, it’s slow because your legs can’t do the same work they can do on dry trail — for the same reason carrying a 50 lbs pack is ‘slow’.

In the Sierra, big snow means big melt off. The most dangerous part to the backpacker is the need to cross swift, swollen creeks and rivers.

I suggest listening to Nick’s advise regarding the Fuller Ridge snow pack (PCT mile 190) on Mt. San Jacinto.  Fuller Ridge is not a fun place to be in bad conditions, as the number of SAR missions to rescue hikers every year make that abundantly clear.  You will be at Fuller Ridge about a week from leaving Campo and if its loaded with snow when you arrive, consider the option of detouring around it.

You’ll be skipping Apache Peak this year so you don’t have to worry about the snow there. Fuller Ridge can be a problem for you, but bring some crampons and you’ll be fine. I have hiked the Fuller Ridge snow wearing Chaco sandals twice now.

It is hard to go slow on the PCT especially in So Cal. The trail is quite moderate through So Cal and it’s pretty easy to get up to a 15 mile a day pace or more. To go less will require you to loll around in the hot sun unless you’re lucky enough to find a bridge. Every hour you just sit there is another hour you aren’t getting closer to the next water source. Water sources really drive your desire to move forward. The other alternative is to loll about in towns. But that gets expensive quick and you run the risk of falling into the vortex.