Thanks for your thoughtful responses.
To summarise, it seems there are some folks who can use the base/inner jacket/shell combo down to freezing, or below (!). Meanwhile others only feel comfortable down to 40-45F. Richard is suggesting that much of the difference is probably accounted for in the activity levels of the campers. Those who are more active in camp will require much less insulation.
There are so many factors which can affect how warm you feel that I guess you can't really know until you get out there and test it yourself. In the past I've usually needed 4 or 5 layers to get down to near freezing (35F)… but my mid-layers have been a heavy fleece jacket plus a couple of extra baselayer long-sleeves.
It's the mid-layer that I am finding to be a challenge. A montbell inner jacket on it's own doesn't seem much. If I want more warmth I then have to carry an extra layer, so I might as well carry a light alpine down jacket as a single layer. Sigh. I strongly suspect that, like Ben suggested, I will end up with two jackets — a UL inner jacket, and a light alpine down — and choose the one most appropriate for the conditions. Can't afford 2 jackets right now though!
I'd have to agree with Jamie's comment that conditions are usually coldest (or seem coldest) early in the morning before the sun hits camp. I've been bitterly cold in the French alps at 10am in summer, waiting for the sun to creep over a mountaintop and on to my side of the valley.
But it seems not many of you carry a montbell alpine light jacket (or equivalent) for 3 season trips, and instead just go with an UL inner jacket (or equivalent). Having just those 3 layers with the UL jacket as a mid-layer is a bit of a leap of faith for me, because it has been insufficient on past trips where my mid-layer has been a heavy fleece.