So, after a little research.
Rate of energy loss through the mat in watts per metre squared of body contact = temperature difference between body and ground in Kelvin or Centigrade / R-value of mat
or wm2=K/R
so to keep w the same as K (the temp difference) changes
R2 = R1*K2/K1
e.g.
Assume a body temp of 37C, ground temp of 15C, mat of R=2.3 (Prolite 3)
wm2 = (37-15)/2.3 = 22/2.3 = 9.57
Say I'm comfortable with that and now I want to know how much mat I need to be as comfortable on my winter trip where the ground will be about 0C
New temp difference = K2 = 37-0 = 37
New mat = R2 = R1*K2/K1 = 2.3*37/22 = 3.86
Quick check:
wm2 = 37/3.86 = 9.57
So I need to upgrade to a TrailPro if I want the same comfort level (and I'm a Thermarest fanboy).
This all assumes that you keep your sleeping bag the same and wear the same clothes of course.


