Hey Chris,
I believe a warm bag is the most essential piece of gear you need.
There can, (are) also temps below freezing on the JMT year round.
I don't understand why you wouldn't want around a 25 degree bag that weighs a half pound more? Then you can drop any extra clothing and just carry a light weight down jacket for camp.
You will never be able to beat a combination weight with a better bag with 1 short, 1 long sleeve, 1 shorts, 1 pant, and 1 down jacket for layering if you were to bring a 40 degree bag.
You would probably need a good (at least) mid weight thermal, and another, (just in case) long sleeve shirt and even a heavier jacket to aid with the 40 degree bag.
All of this would come to a lot more than a half pound and would also take a lot more room in the pack.
A guaranteed good nights sleep beats packing your insecurities any day.
Oh, by the way, I slept in a 40* bag the night my profile picture here was taken. I had all of my clothing on and absolutly froze my nads off.