I've read the horror stories of down collapsing in wet weather. Specifically, if one is caught in a multi-day storm, reports describe watching the down slowly collapsing. And I've seen my own down bags become somewhat damp.
However, would humidity/perspiration/dampness alone be enough to completely lose all loft, as if it were soaked in a river for an hour? I can't imagine this to be the case. Are we talking half the loft, most of it, or just a bit? Or will more and more loft be lost the longer one goes until it is completely sandwiched flat?
Is there any consensus on how much 800 fill down loft could be lost in 3-5 days of continuous use in continuous cold rain?
I am asking because I use a GoLite Ultra 20 quilt with a pair of Cocoon hoody and pants, and a cocoon 60 balaclava. Therefore I have synthetic clothing as a backup to an already warm quilt. However, I backpack in the Pacific Northwest, and am considering this combination for the rainy season.
With the synthetic clothing, I could get by with a Cocoon 180 quilt (same weight as the Golite Ultra). But the Golite will be substantially warmer and more packable (I presume), whereas I'd be pushing the limits near freezing with the 180 according to reports from this site. So for the same weight as the 180, I get the luxurious loft of the Golite Ultra.
So let's say I'm caught in an emergency situation, hunkered down for 3-5 days in heavy rain, unable to return due to heavy flooding of the rivers (not an unlikely scenario on Mt. Hood in November). But even if I lost, say, half the loft in my down bag, I should still have an inch of down loft plus my Cocoon loft. This would give me the same loft as a Cocoon 180 quilt at the beginning of the storm.
For complete safety I could get the upcoming 240g/sm XP Cocoon quilt coming out in June/July, but I expect this to add another half pound at least, plus considerable bulk.
I should mention I rarely backpack for more than 3 nights; I am referring here to more of a safety margin if I am stuck for a few nights waiting for rescue with a proper shelter (thus my concerns are with rain spray and general dampness, not with direct rain on the bag).
I can understand being concerned if my down bag was my main source of insulation, or if I were using a summer weight bag that I was pushing the limits of. I'm just wondering if, with my current situation, I'll still be okay, if a little cool, or if we're talking emergency hypothermia here. Based on how warm my Cocoon suit keeps me, I find it hard to believe I could reach a hypothermic state in anything above freezing (assuming enough food and water to keep my metabolism normal), but then I've never been hypothermic, so I wouldn't know.
EDIT: I should mention I am talking about a single emergency wait-out, which is different than packing a damp bag into a stuffsack and expecting it to loft back up. Here is where down really takes a beating vs. Synthetic. So I guess my 'nightmare scenario' ought to include being in rainy weather for 3 days, with an already damp bag that's been stuffed while damp most of the time, and THEN getting stuck by a flooded river or injury for a few days. Hmm, that 240XP is looking a bit better in this scenario'…



