Chris,
First of all, I think the Lunar Solo E and Contrail are fine shelters. I've also personally met the makers of both those tents and have nothing but the highest respect for their designs and customer service.
I've posted a lot of information, so I will summarize it all here in one sentence: IMO the Lunar and Contrail are excellent low-elevation shelters and good above-treeline shelters, whereas the Shangri-La 1 is an excellent above-treeline shelter and a good low-elevation shelter.
I think the biggest strength of the Lunar and Contrail is their breathability while maintaining very good protection for light weight. This is inherent in their designs, and is a core component of the single wall shelter philosophy. These are also ideal shelters when used in normal hiking conditions (when one hikes high and camps low, seeking areas protected from wind, as per sensible lightweight hiking practice). That said, many users here have successfully used these tarptents in foul weather. I have personally owned a SMD Gatewood Cape and a Tarptent Rainshadow 1.
Others will disagree with me, but I personally feel their weakness is above treeline. Neither the Lunar Solo E or Contrail bring all sides fully to the ground the way the Shangri-La does, so you do have to worry which direction the wind comes from. Where I hike, the wind can easily change direction through the night. Worse than this for me is that I have found very few camp sites where the ideal lay of the land for sleeping is the same as the direction of the wind. Again, it is part of the design philosophy of these tents to keep at least one side raised from the ground, to facilitate air movement within the shelter, and is not necessarily a weakness of the tents themselves. Depends on how you intend to use them.
The Gatewood Cape is the same tarp shape as the Lunar Solo E minus the inner netting and tent. If you read the full Gatewood Cape review on this website, you will read that, when the 30mph wind changed direction at night, Will Rietveld's sleeping bag was hit by wind-blown rain through the night via the awning. Granted, he had pitched the shelter higher than the manufacturer specifies, and you 'can' pitch all sides to the ground. However, I have found it impossible to get a taught pitch this way, and the living space is very small. I'm pretty sure the same would apply to the Lunar Solo E.
This brings me to the other big weakness of the Gatewood; it's to small for large people in shelter mode, but to large for small people in poncho mode. I'm 6'2", and with all sides pitched to the ground, my feet and head are both within inches of the fabric. Any wind blowing the fabric inwards or sliding around at night will cause direct contact with the dew-covered sides. WIth the Lunar Solo E, you should be able to pitch the tarp higher in storms since the bathtub floor and netting will offer some protection from wind-blown rain , but I can't comment on that since I haven't used a Lunar Solo E.
The Contrail, on the other hand, has a more protective awning than the other Tarptents, in that it comes closer to the ground. And it does look like you can get this shelter pretty close to the ground if you had to. My experience has been with a TT Rainshadow, whose awning leaves a large gap between it and the ground. Again, great for ventilation. But one windy evening the wind came through the awning and blew the tarp up like a balloon. It was literally a sail waiting to take off. I had to rely completely on the strength of my stakes and how well I had attached the guyouts to the stakes to keep the shelter from flying away into the night. Of course I was not in a sheltered site as I should have been, and the Rainshadow has significantly more fabric than the Contrail. So I can't say for sure whether this would be an issue in the Contrail, or if this would bother you if this were the case. My big concern with the Contrail is the amount of foot space. Based on the pictures I've seen, I'd think you would need to get a pretty taught pitch to keep the lower fabric from hitting the lower part of your sleeping bag, particularly if wind were bowing the fabric inward. But again, I can't directly comment on this, and there are several users in these forums that swear by the Contrails' storm-worthiness.
The other weakness of the Contrail is also a weakness of the Shangri-La 1, which is the large, unsupported side panels running from the feet to head. This is a lot of fabric that has to deflect wind. The big advantage of the Lunar Solo and other pyramid shelters is that the main support pole is in the very center of the tent, which effectively cuts in half the length of unsupported fabric. This reduces the amount of deflection of the fabric and stress on the guylines in high winds. This will be an area I will be testing with the Shangri-La 1.
There's also the aesthetic advantage of a side entry tent such as the Lunar; you can open the awning and get great views from the shelter. In the front-entry Contrail and Shangri-La, you have to point the front of the shelter towards the views (which is usually downhill, the exact opposite direction you should point the tent!). My solution is to simply remove the front pole of the Shangri La to get bivy-like views, an then put the pole back when I'm ready to zip up for the night. Still, not as nice as the Lunar can provide.
My personal hiking style is to camp high. This adds inherent risks, and requires that I pack more durable gear. But most of my trips are weekenders. For me, spending two days on the trail, but then camping below the treeline, adds little to my wilderness experience; I can usually do the same trip in a very long dayhike and save the hassle of packing up my full backpacking gear. What makes backpacking a worthwhile and unique experience are the great views during sunset and sunrise from above treeline. So I want to be prepared to take advantage of these views. Of course I will descend if lightning is even a remote possibility, and I wouldn't stay up there knowing a major storm was about to blow through. But nor do I want to deprive myself of great views because of a brisk wind because I don't have the right gear (as happened this past summer). Also, many UL hikers rely on their ability to get to a sheltered site in a storm. Well, what if you break you leg in a high pass on a solo trip? I feel more confident knowing I carry gear that will keep me safe at any point of the trip, particularly on solo trips.
This is where the Shangri-La 1 enters into my equation. I want a shelter in which all sides can come completely to the ground. This shelter is made of thicker Silnylon that the Lunar or Contrail. 1.35oz is plenty strong, but 1.76oz is near bombproof, and stretches much less than 1.35oz when wet. Others will disagree, but I simply do not trust the guyouts of the SMD and Tarptent models under sustained, high winds. Read the article "Make Your Own Gear Sewing Primer: Reinforcement Stitches for Lightweight Fabrics" from this website. The Tarptents and SMD tents use straight stitches or bar tacking to attach the guyouts. In both cases they are only sewn to the very bottom hem of the fabric, and visibly pull on the 1.35oz fabric. Both of these are shown to be more prone to tearing out than an X-box stitch. The article demonstrates, by causing all three stitch types to fail, that the X-box stitch is by far the strongest. This is a real weakness of the TT and SMD shelters IMO. The Shangri-La 1 uses the X-box stitch.
Read the GoLite Hex 3 review on this website, and you will see it easily deflected 60 mph sustained winds. The Shangri-La 1 uses the same fabric and guyout technology (I know because I own a Hex 3), but is half a pound lighter. The major difference, of course, is that the Hex is a pyramid shape while the Shangri-La has the long side panels. But these panels are closer to the ground, and the side-guyouts are well-reinforced.
I also like that the tent is completely supported by trekking poles. These are much sturdier than standard tent poles, and should not snap under high winds. Of course the Lunar and Contrail take advantage of this as well.
Another advantage of the Shangri-La is that it can be used with a MLD Serenity Shelter (or possibly a SMD Serenity NetTent) to create a detachable inner nest. With the Lunar and Contrail, if you simply want to take a bug-free afternoon nap, you have to set up the whole tent and try to get it to vent adequately (even my TT Rainbow can get too hot in the afternoon pitched high with the awning open). With one of the Serenity inners, I can just set up the inner net for excellent breathability and views with less setup hassle. This helps offset the Shangri-La being potentially less breathable than the other two tents (discussed below). It also creates a true double-wall tent, keeping your sleeping bag off the sides of the Shangri-La.
The dual peak vents are what allows this to be considered for 3-season use. Understand, however, that several posters on this website (myself included) think the Hex 3 gets too hot in 3-season, below timberline areas. It simply does not allow the cross ventilation you get from the Tarptents. I'm hoping that the dual vents, with one lower than the other, combined with a high pitch (5"-6" is possible without extra guyline), will provide a similar level of breathability as you'd get from a Tarptent. If there are any weaknesses of this tent, I believe they will be issues of breathability in hot, muggy conditions and side deflection of the fabric in high winds. But my hope is that they are not. Only a thorough testing and review will tell for sure, though. It'd be great to see BPL test this tent.
For me, since the weights are basically comparable between the three, I've opted for the Shagri-La 1 for the increased durability of the fabric and guyouts, and for the versatility of the removable inner bug net.