Following on from Mike's comments:
> 1) Likely higher winds at elevation would make it colder
Possibly so, but let's assume you have a decent tent or a decent bivy bag.
> 2) The lower air pressure will have lower thermal conductivity, making the bag warmer at elevation.
True, but I am not sure the effect will be huge. What actually matters is not so much the thermal conductivity of the air so as the movement of the air inside the down.
As you may know, an empty air mat is quite cold compared to a foam mat or a down air mattress. This is because the air inside the empty tubes can circulate, exchanging heat from your body to the ground.
The down in a sleeping bag (or DAM) blocks the movement of air inside the shell, and this blocking action will not change a lot with the reduction in air pressure. This is THE key factor in how an SB works.
> If you extrapolate it to a total vacuum (e.g. outer space) you'd eliminate conductivity entirely and be left with just radiation heat losses.
Yep, that's how a 'thermos' works, but the living conditions …
> 3) The lower air pressure at elevation will speed up evaporation, increasing evaporative cooling.
Um … well, not precisely. What does matter is the relative humidity. This gets more complex as the humidity at high altitude may be lower due to various air movements, but I have been in a thick fog at 2,500 m (8,000'), and evaporation does not happen easily under those conditions.
> The magnitude of this effect depends on how much moisture is present in the sleep system
The moisture in the sleep system is going to have a far larger effect on how well the down fluffs up. THAT is probably a very significant factor imho. Putting your sleeping bag out in the sun for an hour or two to dry it out is very very smart.
> (This factor could be eliminated or greatly reduced with a vapor barrier at both elevations.)
Hum… I don't think I would want to be using a VB system above about -10 C. Far too much chance of swimming. ymmv.
> 4)The lower air pressure at elevation will likely affect convective heat transfer
Yes, but the way the down fluffs up and blocks circulation will dominate.
Cheers
Roger