The marginal difference is very low between a cold bag and a hot bag. I’ve tried both!!!
If you have to zip in so that you are breathing into the bag the condensation is a lot worse- don’t go there!
The last time I tested this I was using a cold-weather bag in moderate conditions. After 2 nights of using inside an Aquabloc Bivy bag and one night in the open air during dry cool (8C/48F at night) conditions the bag had taken on around 6oz of moisture. The bag was far too hot for the conditions so that gives you an idea of worst-case.
Down and Synthetic both seem to suffer equally. The major differnce is on the fabric of the sleeping bag itself – if the sleeping bag has something like a pertex or better outer then it will survive better than if it had just a nylon untreated outer.
But this amount of dampness does not have much impact on insulation properties and damp down feels to me no worse than damp synthetic. A good sleeping bag keeps any slight dampness away from the body anyway.
It’s always going to be a case of managing the condensation rather than avoiding it.
The two science bits to remember are that you are:
1. You are a hot body radiating both moisture and heat.
2. Every piece of fabric between you and the outside world that is colder than your body is a potential surface for condensation.
UK conditions tend to be dampish and warmish for most of the year and so I tend to just work on ways of minimising condensation as above. One trick I do use is to have some sort of exposed hood/micro-tarp over the head of the bivy
Solo Micro Tarp so that I don’t have to zip in and can have a relatively weather-free area for my head and cooking.
Allowing time to air the bag in the morning is always key…