JMT, how late is too late

Doesn't northbound make more sense? Lower terrain at the northern end, and much easier bailout points if a storm hits.

we finished the high sierra trail (i.e. whitney and down to the portal) in the early 20's of september this year and it was perfect. purely anecdotal, but hey.

Most years your would be fine. But I do remember one year that a freak storm hit around Sept 20 and dumped several feet of snow in the Whitney area. I think about 4 backpackers died. I did it north bound Sept 12 to Oct 4 back in the 80's and had only about a half hour of rain. But in consideration of what you are concerned about I did it northbound with the idea that previous poster said: lower elevations at the end and easier exits… though the northern part is probably more likely to get an early snow than the southern part, it would be a much bigger problem if you did get snow at the southern end. Also, the sun is low in the sky that time of year and nice not to have it in your eyes all morning and afternoon like it will be going heading south. I would not give the idea of El Nino even a nano second of thought. Last year at this very same time they were saying the very same thing… el Nino, chance of big winter… turned out to be the driest year on record. And… I recently read an article on this that said that only about 30 or 40 percent of the time el Nino produces wetter years… about 30 percent of the time el Nino produces drier years… the short story… they have no idea… el Nino is more of a media even than anything… but it does sell season ski passes… perhaps the idea is promoted by the ski resorts and the mountain community chamber of commerce people… :) billy

I would just add that, though I did go into October on my JMT hike, I think it best to finish up before the end of Sept… Many years there is a storm that dumps snow sometime between about Sept 20 and the first few days or first week of October. More likely the first week of October than the last week of Sept, but it can and has happened the Last week of Sept. Billy

Thanks guys for the insights. I'm thinking I should probably bump up my trip a week or so just in case. Nobo would make sense…but…but…but…I wanna finish on Whitney!!! Wha. ;). Can ya blame me? Just out of curiosity, does VVR sells microspikes, ice axes and snowshoes, etc?

Remember that the usual supply points, like VVR, start to shut down in mid September. They always have. So you will either be leaving the backcountry for resupply…. or perhaps it will be another drought year and a couple of them will stay open later. Tuolumne shut down on schedule. MTR did as well. No, VVR does not sell snow gear, as they shut down in winter. The store is not that well appointed. They have limited food supplies as well. There is a gear store in Tuolumne Meadows, but the plan is for that to close down and go away forever, as well as the gas station. It can snow in July. I recall a few years back the freak storm that drove everyone down from Whitney in August — a couple of friends were among the hikers rushing out of the wilderness, trying not to get caught out in the lightning. People were risking their lives crossing the stream and the guy who manages the store at the Portal was out trying to help them across. It's more likely to be serious weather the later it gets, which is why by the end of September a lot of resorts are boarded up and done. I bailed out of a Whitney visit in August just six years ago. The dark clouds were absolutely dire looking. It was so cold my friend was in all her clothes hiking over New Army to the car. We were convinced it was going to open up and bury us in snow, but it spat a few flakes and stopped until we were driving down the mountain. But it was the ranger's prediction of 60 mph wind that kept us from climbing the mountain….

Personally, I really liked finishing in Yosemite. Spent my last night camped on top of Cloud's Rest. billy

I chose VVR over MTR because I thought it stayed open later. The website says the last day to pickup a resupply is Oct 20. Was that only during the drought year? And good point about ending in Yosemite. I love that spot on top of cloudsrest! Cool rock formations and amazing view!

Yes. Clouds rest is a great ending. Then hike down the mist trail. I had my girlfriend meet me at Happy Isles. We rented a cabin in Curry Village and had a great steak dinner in one of the restaurants. A nice way to end the trip. bill

I was in Sierra until October 1st this year; could have stayed longer. Re projected El Nino this winter, does not affect conditions September of 2016; could affect early season hiking, but not fall. Re resupply, Red's Meadows closes last day of September. VVR closes mid October; I once spent a night at VVR the first week of October in conjunction with a backpack trip. Both Red's and VVR are road accessible; thus the later closings. MTR closes mid September, 15th I believe. You could reach MTR southbound by September 15 for supply pick up, especially if you start at Tuolumne Meadows, not Happy Isles. I have been on Whitney in early October and weather was great, but can snow in Sierra at any time. Just be prepared. Re season with Whitney hiker deaths, my understanding is these particular hikers were inexperienced, completely unprepared and exhibited poor judgment once snow started. JMT southbound is easier than northbound, but if you are in good hiking shape, northbound is not a problem. Northbound will permit resupply at MTR (possible overnight at MTR), etc. Plus, you get Whitney over with at the beginning and then can enjoy the high passes.