Thanks for building the model, Richard. This is fascinating stuff!
The Havenith study you mentioned looks very interesting. I was not familiar with it. The subject definitely needs more research.
I have a couple of comments and questions on your model:
1) As you mentioned, there a many other variables that could be built in that *may* improve the model quality and *will* increase its complexity. :-) Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see the effect of increased air exchange due to the higher air permeability and wind of the "bivy-under" scenario. I speculate that this would reduce the RH in the system, move the dewpoint outwards, and reduce the total amount of moisture subject to condensation in the layers.
2) Your chart of the "bivy-covered" scenario implies that after condensation to liquid at the dewpoint, the moisture will re-evaporate and escape. Why wouldn't any re-evaporated (or wicked as liquid) moisture freeze as it crossed the freezing point? Note if it did freeze, it appears that it would be on the bivy in this case and not inside the bag, which makes it much easier to eliminate in the morning.
3) The original poster said that he was at "about 30 degrees". This is a tricky temperature at which to stay dry in any sleep system. Also, at exactly 30 degrees, your models produce freezing condensation in the bivy-under case and liquid in the bivy-covered case. But a few degrees in either direction, such as might be influenced by the use of a tarp, would change that outcome completely.
4) In my experience, there really is no single "dewpoint" in a typical sleep system. It's smeared into more of a "dew gradient" by the temperature gradient, humidity gradient (which is affected by air exchange), and wicking within the insulation.
5) I usually suggest something like the bivy-covered system for breezy conditions and the bivy-under case for still air conditions — in effect, the opposite of cases you've shown. How would your models behave in these cases?
Best Regards,
-Mike