I plan on water coming in at a 45degree angle. So, the size will vary with the exact pitch. If you like a 40" high pitch, a 9' long tarp about 8' wide will do (assuming you use about 8" guy-lines on corners for ventilation.) I sleep towards the back, so there isn't a lot of "dry" space left.
In storm mode with heavier swirling winds, I plant one end tight and leave the other at a 3' height. This means only 3' will spray in. I put my rain jacket as a door and ignore the weather. Let it rain. If I have chosen a good piece of ground, and my tarp is well anchored, I have never had it blow out on me in 50-60mph winds. Usually you can tell before the sun goes down. (Edit: It sheds wind in three directions very well, but can catch wind if the door is into the wind.)
I don't bother with a trapezoidal tarp. Too many other problems setting it up. Stick with a standard square or rectangular tarp.
Cat Cuts are a bandaid for poor design, poor materials, and/or poor set-up:
If a tarp is set up properly, with heavy elastic guy outs, it will "pull" itself taught to compensate for any stretching. http://gossamergear.com/wp/diy-self-tensioning-guy-lines-2 (Edit:Basically a 4" loop of heavy elastic pulled taught. Cat cuts are really not needed for this.)
If it is designed in, you are limited in pitching options. (Though it is possible to "simulate" a pitched tarp with longer "poles" to set it up as a lean-to.) It does not really limit you, but it makes setup more difficult.
If you have poor materials, they will absorb more water than good materials. A silicone fly with a light coating of silicone will absorb a bit more water than one with a heavier coating. 1.2 and 1.3oz fabric is not real great. I use a thinned mix of mineral spirits/100% silicone caulk for about a .2-.3oz increase in fabric weight to improve this. The tarps stretch very little after 24hours in the rain…maybe as much as 4-5%, not 10% like out of the box.
Generally, a full coverage tarp will weigh about 1 pound including stakes and guylines. This will vary, of course. I have one that is about 12 years old that I have recoated three times that weighs about 17oz without stakes. A new one weighs about 13-14oz, depending, and cost about $60. (Edit: A new, factory made tarp will run close to $90) Cuben would weigh about 8-9oz and cost about $400. The silnylon also packs a bit smaller, it fits into my grease/cook pot.