Overall, I'd say it's pretty good, but there are a couple of points that I think may help you a bit:
"I've always had difficulty keeping the pack pulled against my back, and strangely, this got worse as the pack got lighter (I would keep pulling the waist belt and shoulder straps tighter and tighter, but still had trouble keeping the pack from riding down and falling back)."
This is absolutely related to the stay not shaped to the upper bend of your back. This is probably the most common problem I see. The stay simply needs to be bent further towards your back.
"Another thing that doesn't help is that I don't have much of a natural uh, "shelf" for the weight to rest on."
Everyone always focuses on the lower "shelf," but there's also some purchase at the top bend of the stay, on the musculature of your back, to rest on.
"I had to bend it *a lot* to achieve this, to the point that it was difficult to get the stay back in its sleeves."
Perfectly fine and normal. The key here is for the stay to follow the curves of your back.
"I've also attached the belt to the body about 1/2" higher than normal in an attempt to lower the pack a bit."
Yeah, not an ideal situation, but if that's the only place to adjust…
"The result seems to be better, though there is a little pressure in the upper part of my lumbar curve that I don't love."
More on this below, but I think this is mainly due to the location of the bends in the stay, not the amount of bend.
"Here's a pic with the pack loaded up to a light but puffy 13 lbs. What do you think? Any suggestions for further adjustment?"
Here's an annotated pic:

Starting from the bottom of the pack, I dislike when packs extend much beyond the lower edge of the hip belt. I can feel my glutes knock into the pack at certain times which is annoying. Furthermore, I feel like it disrupts the fit of the lumbar region. I assume yours extends so far because of the adjustment you made to where the hip belt is placed.
The lower bend looks like it's placed properly and shaped correctly. The pack fits close and follows your contour.
Going up, the second bend appears to begin too low (notice the gap). I bet the pack would feel much better if you changed the center of the bend about 2-3" higher up.
Finally, the top of the pack is about level (strap attachments & stay), which is good for this style of pack, but I think you could go up a bit (lower the hip belt placement) since when more weight is added it's sure to slump a bit more. Maybe try a 1/2".
A properly fitted pack is a wonderful thing that will make you smile (see annotated pic). I went through a similar process with my HMG Porter. I'd bend the stays, fill the pack with some weight, and take a profile pic. Review & tweak, over and over.
Good luck. I hope this helps.