Jul 28, 2015 at 7:52 am #2217471
Assuming that he did start exactly on the hour, from the first pings we are seeing it looks like Allen started at 6am.
edit: Maybe not. I see him at the trail junction (just beyond Trail Crest) at ~8:40am. He has generally been at a similar pace to me on the uphills when we've trained together, so that looks too quick for a 6am start. I think maybe he did not start exactly on the hour. I guess we'll be in suspense until the end if he's close to the record at the finish….Jul 28, 2015 at 10:07 am #2217494Bob MoulderBPL Member
@bobmny10562Locale: Westchester County, NY
Assuming the adjusted target ETA is correct, looks like ~5:30am start with that 9:32am ping, no?
The distance between 20-21 is enormous… he's absolutely flying down the trail!Jul 28, 2015 at 10:19 am #2217500Art …BPL Member
I know its entertaining … of course.
but a bit too much analysis and extrapolation of the first 6 hours of a multi day adventure.
in 100 mile ultra running, you can't win a race in the first 30 miles but you can lose one.
its the last 30 miles where a race is won.
so here, its really simply all about Red's Meadow to Happy Isles.
what comes before is just a warm up for that.Jul 28, 2015 at 11:02 am #2217510
Here's my updated kit list for tomorrow.
Jul 28, 2015 at 12:24 pm #2217542
(edit: updated through Wallace Creek)
Well, Ralph, I hope you're okay with us using this thread to discuss Allen's attempt, too. Once you get going, it'll be a coupled topic anyway!
Here's a table with an update on Allen's progress. Like the rest of you, I had to guess at some things, and needed to interpolate between SPOT points. I guessed a 5:30am start, but my hunch is that Allen started a little later than that.
And here's a profile:Jul 28, 2015 at 12:31 pm #2217544
I'm leaving my laptop in Mammoth, so I just need to put up my SPOT link now.
For clarity, here's Allen's again too:
ALLEN SPOT tracker link – start 7/28 5:30am (estimated)
RALPH SPOT tracker link – start 7/29 5:00 amJul 28, 2015 at 4:25 pm #2217628Scott BentzBPL Member
@scottbentzLocale: Southern California
I spoke to Andrew yesterday and he mentioned Allen's attempt. He knows Allen and posted his Spot on his Facebook page (dad does not Facebook). As stated earlier, he is out on the CDT in Wyoming. He will be updated whenever he gets some sort of cell service.
I look at those well thought out split time tables and kind of chuckle. I think Andrew figured out his plan in his head: I never saw anything written. He pretty much solidified the plan as he passed through the JMT section of the PCT last year. My wife, sister in law and I resupplied he and his friend at Reds while he was on the PCT and then hiked with him to Tuolumne Meadows. It was the first hike for my sister in law and she really enjoyed it. I told my wife a few days later that I thought Andrew would go for another attempt on the JMT after he got off the PCT. Well, about 3 days later he called and confirmed the same.
It's a brutal trail to fast hike.
Good luck to all.
ScottJul 28, 2015 at 5:46 pm #2217666
Forester at 3:52pm, that's 10h22m elapsed time.
Good pace.Jul 28, 2015 at 7:20 pm #2217704Jul 28, 2015 at 8:02 pm #2217716Greg MihalikBPL Member
Thanks for the awesome stats!
They are very much appreciated.Jul 28, 2015 at 8:47 pm #2217726Ito JakuchuBPL Member
Agree what Art says, but you have to start somewhere. Love these graphs in the absence of other coverage. Thanks Allen.Jul 28, 2015 at 9:13 pm #2217730
Glad to provide them! It's a lot easier than, y'know, attempting a FKT, after all.
Hopefully it's just SPOT funniness, but the evidence is starting to look a little damning–Allen may have taken the Sixty Lake Basin trail, realized it, and turned around.
I really hope it's just wonkiness in the SPOT. If it were just one or two points, I'd be certain that it was, but several points, on an out-and-back like that…well, here's hoping the next point shows up near Dollar Lake.Jul 29, 2015 at 8:19 am #2217795
Well, Allen's SPOT was quiet until it came back to life at Wood's Creek crossing at 11:22PM. So, he arrived there at or before then. It was alive for the next 3.5 hours while he rested there, then went quiet again, and has been quiet for the last five hours or so. Hopefully he didn't intend to turn it off while he was stopped, and then intend to turn it back on when we got going, but do the inverse of that. Five hours–whilst on the move–is a long time for a SPOT to be quiet. He should be over Pinchot, and in the vicinity of the South Fork Kings right now…
Meanwhile, Ralph is on the go! It looks like he started at 5:00AM on the dot this morning, and just arrived at the Whitney Trail/JMT junction.Jul 29, 2015 at 10:48 am #2217839
Now that they're both on the trail, my spreadsheet nightmare is alive and well!
Here's an update for Allen. I obviously had to make some guesses to fill in the blanks, with the sporadic reporting we're getting from Allen's SPOT.
And, here's a start for Ralph:
The bottom plot is an overlay of both of their speeds for direct comparison. It may get too busy to be useful.
Looks like they're both doing pretty well! They have a beautiful morning for it…Jul 29, 2015 at 11:41 am #2217850Mike MBPL Member
^ nicely done- thanks!
Godspeed GentsJul 29, 2015 at 12:10 pm #2217860Bob SteeleBPL Member
@bobsteelephotoLocale: Eastern Sierra (Aspendell)
Adam, this is so cool. Thanks for doing this. Good luck to them both!Jul 29, 2015 at 1:18 pm #2217878
I created a new thread here to keep updated with Allen and Ralph's progress.
I don't mean to stifle discussion here, but it's easier if I have the first post, and keep updating that post–that way, I won't feel guilty for clogging Ralph's thread with frequent updates, AND there will be just one place to look for the latest.
And thanks for all the–well–thanks!Aug 1, 2015 at 3:54 pm #2218483Allen CBPL Member
Just looked at this and wanted to clarify a couple things:
1. I started at 5:36am at Whitney Portal.
2. I did screw up at 60 lakes Basin somewhow. I saw the sign, turned toward Rae Lakes, and somehow still managed to end up back on the 60 lakes basin trail instead of going between the lakes. I kept wondering if I'd screwed up; should have gone back to check. Escalation of committment got to me, I knew it didn't seem right but kept thinking I must be remembering it wrong since I saw the sign and turned the right way…
losing 45 minutes was demoralizing but in the end I realized that i still had a good shot in spite of this mistake.Aug 1, 2015 at 4:25 pm #2218489
Thanks for the update–for posterity, I updated the profile and table in the other thread to match your 5:36am start time.Aug 5, 2015 at 9:44 am #2219176
Just for good order, the continuation of this thread has migrated to here:
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