Most of my backpacking experience is in the desert Southwest or Rockies in the summer where bugs are rarely an issue. For an upcoming trip, bugs could possibly (not likely) be an issue, but this got me thinking about my lack of bug forecasting knowledge. There seems to be a good bit of literature and data on tick activity across the US, but less for flying bugs such as mosquitoes and black flies. Can you get a good idea of when the peak hatch will occur by looking at SNOTEL and streamflow data to forecast peak snowmelt/precipitation? I would think that somebody studies/models mosquito populations for information on disease vectors for West Nile, etc. What methods do you use to decide whether bugs will be a problem for a trip in an area you haven't been to yet?
