Given the variables – humidity, metabolism, etc. – it's going to be tough to be sure. But as a starting point I'm making an overquilt (2.5 oz climashield) and going on the assumption (based on copious but less than scientific research) that I'm going to get about 15 extra degrees out of it when added to my summer bag. So, if that is correct, then it ought to keep anything from freezing in my bag down to about 17 degrees, right? Using the same assumption you'd need an overquilt that adds 32 degrees of warmth to be sure you were keeping the freezing point out of the inner bag. Or so it seems to me.