Weather Guidelines for Mount Washington?

[Anonymous]

TLDR version: What sorts of temperature guidelines do you think a commercial guide service would use to call off a Mount Washington Lions Head attempt?

Hi, we have an upcoming mount washington trip this weekend. Weather looks all over the place, so there's a 50/50 chance we might have to cancel. I want to confirm my "no go" conditions by the group here.

My climbing experience: I'm mostly a 3 season guy. Upto Class 3, 5,500 foot elevation gains plenty of times. I have done this same mountain in July, among others. I'm looking to gain some class 1 winter experience and I couldn't picture a better east coast view/reward than mount Washington.

Current weather "no go" criteria:
Heavy snow
Summit wind >70 mph
temperature -30 F
No visibility criteria. This mountain has high fog year round, but has Cairns almost every 10 feet above.

Current weather forecast: Reports from mount washington observatory, NOAA, weather.com, and google are all varying ALOT. Best reports say summit maybe as warm as 0 F with wind <20mph. Worst report says -50F to -60F with 105 mph gust.

Questions: My climbing partner lives in boston and thinks we would be fine down to -50 F. I don't want to be overly cautious, but I just don't know alot about this range. Is there a general guideline that say a guide service might use for this? When I researched this a month ago, I saw wind guidelines but not a lot for temperature. When I've read moutaineering books, I get concerned about ability to drink water (bottle wrapped in jacket in backpack), loosing control of hands, and of course critical accute hypothermia.

Planned Attire:
Lower:
2 pairs of base layer leggings, Arc'teryx ski pants.
Upper:
Polyester base layer, REI versions of the patagonia R4(heavy fleece), mountain hardwear zonal jacket (light jacket with breathable side vents), Marmot Precip shell
Extras:non-insultated gortex boots,Extra thick Smartwools w/breadbag VBL; Walmart Ski gloves, Beanie hat. REI balaclava with small breathing holess, cheap ski googles.

Waterbottle will have Gatoraid mixed to help lower the Freezing point (salt effect). wrapped in jacket in backpack at first, or inside jacket if I start to see ice in bottle.

In the backpack: Mountain hardware Kelvinator parka.

[Bob Gross]

Craig, it looks like you are prepared to climb Mount Washington for any time except for now. The 105 mph wind gust would take all of the fun out of it.

–B.G.–

[Bob Moulder]

Also consider a neoprene face mask to make sure your nose is completely covered.

The face mask is also better because you will find warm moist breath sneaks under your goggles and fogs them up when using a balaclava. At least that's my experience.

Personally, I would not go if winds are above 30-35mph because it's just not fun.

In this case, the herd mentality is actually a good thing. If other parties are turning around at Lion's Head, that's a really good clue.

[Anonymous]

I called and spoke with the mount washington observatory today for help reading the weather data. They forecasted the following for Saturday during the day:

40-60 sustained wind. Gust upto 75.
Wind Chill 20-30 below zero.

Special notes; They said wind will be highest at dawn/dusk. If we summit around 11-12am wind should be the "lowest".

Concerns: The day before (friday) they're still going to get pounded. 105 mph winds, temperatures falling at night to 70 below. I would assume. Looking at today's forecast the temp falls FAST at 2-4pm. I based on trends this week. I suspect saturday around 4-5pm the alpine environment is going to again be -60.

[Bob Moulder]

Doesn't sound fun.

However, forecasts can be all over the place. The best one is the morning of your hike on the weather board at Pinkham.

This is another good resource, but I'd still defer to the folks atop Washington: http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Washington-2/forecasts/1917

Don't fret too much over temperature. WIND is the go/no-go factor.

Very first time I hiked up (IIRC, 1990 or '91) the temperature at Pinkam was -25F and -17 at Lion's head and -8 at the summit. But it was a once-in-a-lifetime experience because there was NO WIND! Mt. Washington was dead center in a huge dome of high pressure. We took a break at Lion's Head and the vapor from our breath wisped gently straight up. Visibility was something like 200 miles. I swear I could see LL Bean in Freeport. ;^)

[Roger Caffin]

I doubt the static (wind-free) temperature is much of a worry – even at -30 F. One can handle that with the right gear.

However, the wind is a totally different matter. Just the wind by itself can destroy the day, but wind + fog (at -30 F?) can give you a wind chill you just don't want to know about.

Then there is the effect of the wind chill on your hands and head, and maybe feet. Can be a shade uncomfortable. Can also completely kill any brain power. Above all else, keep your head WARM.

"A numb brain is a dumb brain.
Only a dumb brain gets a numb brain."
Dr Phil Laws, Head of Australian National Antarctic Research Expedition (ANARE)

Cairns every 10 feet – HA! Cover with a little bit of snow, mask with a strong wind plus snow falling plus fogged goggles, and they could be completely invisible. Do NOT rely on them in bad weather!

You could go and have a look, but two things: be very well equipped (these are not SUL conditions!), and be fully prepared to back out fast if it gets bad. NO machismo. On the other hand, the weather might be tolerable. Who knows?

Cheers

[Bob Gross]

"Cairns every 10 feet"

I sure do not remember that. When I went up the first time, there was a foot or two of snow covering a pile of rocks that were a foot or two in diameter. Therefore, I could not tell when I was going to step on snow on rock or snow on snow. For anybody going up there with high winds over the snow, I would recommend advanced GPS techniques.

–B.G.–

[rOg w]

deleted

[Bob Moulder]

No, do not depend on the cairns for navigation. They aren't all that close together and can be obscured by snow and fog. Clear here, but add some soup and it's gone.

[Bob Gross]

That last photo looks like a nice winter day, and the trail is easy.

Which way is the photo aimed? I can see the summit tower.

–B.G.–

[Bob Moulder]

Yep, a spectacular day for Mt. Washington.

When the weather's nice it's fairly easy. The sign at Pinkham says 4 miles, but I've GPS'd it a few times and it's actually a bit less.

I'm pretty sure that's right below Alpine Garden, looking WNW.

[Bob Gross]

I guess that means that the unplowed road is off to the photographer's right.

–B.G.–

[Bob Moulder]

Yes, at that point the road would be approx .8 mi due north.

Craig, what the summit looks like if you get some nice weather. And the line of cairns in the last photo.

I hope you guys have nice weather! It really is quite fun when Nature cooperates.

edit to add photo

[Anonymous]

Beautiful photos. The second looks fairly close to what I recall on the flat parts. When we went up in July the fog was pretty thick. Varied from 150 feet visibility to 20 feet. There were definately times where we had trouble seeing the next cairn with no snow but I remember being fairly reassured that there were so many cairns.

My partner supposedly has a GPS but I wasn't counting on it since I haven't seen him use it yet.

[Bob Moulder]

Craig, I don't have the gpx files any more, but this is an actual track.

I've no doubt you could easily locate a gpx file, however, and make a route with it.

Below treeline, you literally cannot miss. Up the ravine and hook a right for the winter route.

BTW, you won't need snowshoes, but full crampons (not microspikes) are handy in some places. And an ice axe, for sure.

edit add "ice axe"

[Bob Gross]

Doesn't anybody go up Tuckerman Ravine anymore?

When I first went up there (16? years ago), Tuckerman Ravine was the only trail that I had ever heard of, but I came down the Lion Head trail.

—B.G.—

[Anonymous]

B.G.

I've done Tuckerman's in summer. In winter, its not advised due to Avalanche warnings. This last weekend the avalanche Risk was reported as "High-Severe".

I know there's a seperate section for trip reports, but just wanted to give you guys some feedback on the good advise you gave me.

Temp wise: windchill was -20 at the base. Weather report suggested -30 to -40 at the summit. On the trail though, we had 0 wind until about 5200 feet (tree line). That meant we were shedding layers like crazy to stay dry. Some folks were down to just a microfleece shirt. Above treeline, as long as no skin was exposed, we were totally fine. I had 3 extra jackets & a wool scarf in my backpack that went completely unused.

Navigation- The winter route has less Cairns than the summer route. approximatley every 50-100 feet. Even with 14 inches of fresh snow the day before, the "Snowpack" makes the trail obvious. If we took 1 step off the trail below treeline we sunk upto our waist in snow. On the trail, walking was fine on the fire road, and crampons worked well once we hit the rugged trail. Above treeline, we had zero fog/cloud cover, which was different than last time I went up. We had perfect visibility.

Gear notes: Trail upto the ridge line was a bit more of a vertical climb than expected. Although its entirely doable with one ice axe (especially with skill and agility) I totally wouldn't have minded double ice axes with leashes. We used ropes on the descent for just 2-3 pitches of the most hairy down climbs. We saw 2-3 people go "tumbling" when they slipped on these pitches and they didn't stop until they slammed into trees.

Glissading with Crampons: I've read this is dangerous, but I didn't understand why the experienced guys on here were so annoyed about it until this weekend. We did not glissade at all, since we wanted to build skill with the crampons. However we saw tons of people glissading in crampons. Sometimes around wooded corners where they could have easily rammed someone with their spikes. This trail was tight, and probably the most uncomfortable I've ever been regarding the risk of idiots around me. When we got back, the guide we rented gear from said this year they've had 39 people break their leg while glissading in crampons on that mountain alone.

[Bob Moulder]

Glad to hear you had good weather for your hike. That's why it's best just to prepare properly and go, because the long-range (and even mid- and short-range) forecasts are very often wrong.

Yes, with no wind and temps in the teens I have peeled layers down to a thin polyester SS T-shirt on the way up the ravine trail.

Count it as a GREAT day and thank your lucky stars that you didn't need all the layers you took! ;^)

[Author]

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