As phrased, I do not have any help for you. Perhaps you can clarify you question and maybe get better answers.
It seems to me you are actually asking 2 questions:
- What will the weather be for the last part of September in The Northern Smokies?
- Will the above clothes keep me warm enough in those conditions?
I don’t know anything about #1. But you can answer some of that online. Like hours of daylight and average temperature and precipitation.
As far as # 2, that’s a tricky question:
- Do you run warm or cold compared to most? What temperature are you comfortable in with that quilt and pad?
- What is your shelter?
- Will you be hiking long days or spending more time in camp?
- If weather is bad, will you bail out, push on or hunker down?
At a minimum, you need to consider those factors before choosing your gear