Hell in much larger than a handbasket

[Dan]

I’m pleased to see that almost everyone posting really does understand the gravity of the situation, the cause of the situation, and the reality that there is truly a significant amount that can be done about it immediately, and in the short term. Even five years ago, there would have been many more people spouting the out-dated agenda-driven nonsense that one person is contributing to this thread. We will never get 100% of people to come around, so we just have to move ahead without them, and let them complain.

[Justin W]

“In 1000 years the earth with be in another ice age. And everybody will be whining about the constant 30d temps. Ugh! Have you ever looked at it in that perspective? just sayin’ ”

Significantly sooner.  And the records cyclically/repeatedly show, it usually warms before the earth is plummeted into a longer ice age cycle. And as far as big temp and climate swings, about 12, 000 to 10, 000 years ago, there were two warming periods that equaled about a 14*C warmer temp change within a relatively short time.  Humanity survived that climate shift.  In fact, humanity always does better when it is warmer as compared to when it is colder.  If you look at the last few thousand years and the relatively brief “little ice ages” within that time, humanity really struggled.  It is not a “coincidence” that our population and science/technology has exploded in the last couple hundred years during an unusually warm period.

A little known fact about climate science and models: When these factor in the Sun, they only factor in Solar irradiance (i.e. visible light, which doesn’t appreciably change much from cycle to cycle).  The Sun can pump energy into the earth in various other ways besides just visible light.  For example, when there are intense Solar storms, the Sun in a sense electro-magnetically couples with the earth and can induce heating in electro-magnetic ways.  And the supreme irony of all this?  During cycles of greater Sun spots (during Solar Max’s etc), solar irradiance actually goes down slightly and so in the models, it actually “seems” like the Sun is even a slightly lesser factor when in reality, the Sun is pumping the earth full of energy, some which can and will get converted into heat.

Perhaps not surprising in light of all this, from the 1950’s to 2000 or so, the Sun was in a larger cycle that is often referred to as a Grand Solar Maximum meaning that the Sun was significantly and unusually active during this period.  Also not surprisingly, this is when we started to see some major speed ups and changes in the earth’s magnetic field and poles.  Around 2000 at the height of the Solar activity, the Earth’s north magnetic pole (the south pole was a bit slower) started to sky rocket in speed of movement and the magnetic field intensity has been exponentially decreasing.  (Interestingly, these changes in the earth’s magnetic field and poles started around the time that the Carrington Solar event of 1859 happened, which blasted earth with CME’s so powerful that had it happened today, it would have collapsed this fragile civilization by disabling the electrical grid system.  Auroras were seen as far south as Cuba.  Farmers got woken up in the middle of the night thinking it was dawn and time to start their day because the auroras were so bright.  The telegraph system got fried. Etc, etc)

When you keep in mind that the oceans are giant heat storage containers (water has a very high heat capacity, and the oceans contain a lot of it), then you realize that even after the Sun calmed down, it would take a long time (decades) for all that pent up stored heat energy to start to dissipate.

I’m not saying that climate change isn’t happening, and I’m not saying that humans aren’t contributing, but the full story of this is just not delved into the mainstream for some reason(s).  The Sun is very clearly the driving factor, not just in climate change, but also in the current other major changes in the Earth as regards the magnetic field/poles.

And before folks label me this or that–a little background: I grew up in MA in a liberal, democrat, progressive family and in many ways, still hold a lot of those values (I have a definite inner hippy personality aspect etc).  But now I don’t identify with either side politically, because I want to be free of group think, bias, etc.  (The last politician I actually kind of liked and supported was Sanders. But I also think our system is broken beyond repair).

As regards Lake Mead–it is a confluence of not just climate change, but poor resource management and growing and changing populations.

[HkNewman]

And yet thousands and thousands of people are still moving to Arizona and Nevada each year. Texas has become hotter than the gates of hell.

Fwiw the PNW (Portland, Seattle) have seen ever worse summer heatwaves.  Was visiting one summer (more to check out bike riding than hiking), and the highs were higher than Phoenix AZ.  Of course the area is closer to the Pacific if desalination eventually becomes required (one contractor told me that hydroelectric up there may get more expensive as those dams water levels lower .. on average).   California and Colorado have some good snow so far, but many articles point out at least the former needs more to reverse its drought.  Part is infrastructure too as residents wonder why can’t this water be captured, which  punts it to taxpayer/utility ratepayer chaff and beyond the scope of backpacking.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/rcna64981

Backpacking-wise this rain will help with the water levels out West now, but on the western coastal states (without the usually massive rain filled summer “monsoon” the nearby “4 corners states” get), this actually may lead to more grass growth that will dry potentially creating an even worse fire hazard.  The 2017 PCT season was called “Fire and Ice” for this reason.

Even the 4 corners (AZ, NM, CO, UT, and adjacent areas) gets dicey. I remember my last summer in Santa Fe’s Pecos (2018?), where the forest looked lush but the FS levied a fire ban (advertised by a big sign on the major road from Pecos NM) as it’s the leaf litter/plant detritus dryness that matters.  That Memorial Day the authorities caught 85 parties with campfires, so they closed said forest until the thunderstorms wetted everything down (July).   Then came the nonsoon where no summer rain arrived, then last year fire closed New Mexico’s forests until an early monsoon got everything wet again.

It’s just tougher to plan even trips anymore, let alone try to figure out where to live with minimal impact from climate.  Some in the field point out looking at Minnesota to the Great Lakes region if drought is a concern.  Further east though, summers are still hot so one may get steam-baked vs simply baked unless a job/retirement allows for an extended summer vacation.

Recreationally in the summer I may need to rely on easily exchanged tickets..

 

 

[obx hiker]

I’m so glad to see everybody back together. I’ve missed you all. Anyone heard anything from Kat with all the recent weather following the fires?

On topic and response to Monte’s comment about Florida being kept relatively temperate by water all around. Here’s what happens. The water keeps getting warmer and warmer. Now it’s up in the mid 80’s+ approaching 90 in the warmer months. So what? Well that means it doesn’t cool off below the mid 80’s or much worse at night and usually bottoms @ sunrise.  Ever try sleeping when its mid-80’s+ and humidity is through the roof? 95+ in the desert would be easier to bear or bare  Basically in the warmer months you’ve got @ 5 to 6 hours where it’s tolerable outside from @ 5:30am until @ noon. North Carolina mountains are flooded with Gators escaping the Florida heat. Cooling off some at night really helps keep hot days more endurable. We didn’t routinely have AC in houses here on the OBX until the 80’s. Now it would be unbearable without it and no one will rent a vacation home without AC. Now that’s also starting to happen even in the NC mountains. This is not conjectural or word of mouth but lived professional experience. Just one minor detail among ? countless others. Like the dead White Pines in the wind River Range.

Ohh Daddy please take me to the Wind River Mountains

Down by the Green River where paradise lay.

I’m sorry my son but you’re too late in askin’

The borer’s and the Beetles done carried it away

PS Doug you sly fox. Somebody please PM me any small news that Kat’s OK since Matthew’s liable to pull the plug any time now.

[AK Granola]

Won’t sea level rise put much of Florida back underwater? I fail to comprehend why anyone anywhere is purchasing ocean front property right now. Truly living in the moment I guess.

[obx hiker]

Well the disappearing under the waves part is way off in the future like 10 or 20 years after the tipping point? ;) so all the Yankee retirees aren’t planning to live that long anyway. OTOH the 90 degree sauna under the sheets is tonight or relatively soon but they’re all safely inside in the AC adding to the greenhouse gasses AFAP. They only venture out in the daylight to go to the grocer or to play at golf in the cooler months. BTW this holds more true the nearer you are to larger water or further south like Gainesville or Orlando or the southern 2/3rds of La Florida. The @northern 3rd actually went below freezing Christmas Eve. The big cold fronts that sweep SE from the Dakota’s, Montana Alberta etc. actually often reach the Gulf and Panhandle as they can slide by skirting south of the Appalachians. Still it’s all hotter than the hinges of hell in warmer months with the ever-present high humidity.  Send ’em all to the Aleutians. Boost the Alaskan economy and they could all be chill. We didn’t use to mind much up here when they were all just passing through and occasionally clogging up I-95 but the last 20 years or so there’s been this disturbing rebound thingy going on. And this is where they’re bouncing back too.

PS another illumination for rumination. Ever been on a fishing pier? In the Ocean?  If the Oceanfront property is 15 feet above sea level and the property like everywhere @ Ft. Myers is at 4-5-6 feet whose house is going under water? If the house LOT is @ 5′ above sea level but the house is elevated another 10 feet on pilings like a pier which is common here then just like the pier house restaurant on the pier over the ocean or whatever the house is fine once the flood water goes away in a few hours to a day usually at most. Of Course all the houses @ Ft Myers or anyway most, were built slab on grade (sitting on concrete right on the ground) and WE subsidize their flood insurance probably. That’s what happened there and it was as predictable and inevitable as the sunrise. I’m resignedly infuriated at their pathetic destruction. But sent aid anyway.

[Monte Masterson]

It’s true what you say about the ocean waters around Florida getting warmer obx, especially in the Gulf of Mexico, however this map shows the moderating effect of being surrounded by water. As you can see Florida’s highest temps are akin to New York and New England. Another thing I find interesting is how the highest temperature ever recorded in Hawaii (furthest south US state) is the same as Alaska (100*F). Again it shows the moderating effect of being surrounded by ocean waters. Also since this map was printed Washington saw 120* in June 2021 and Colorado 115* in July 2019.

Look at North Dakota at 121*, wow! Continental climates within large land masses far away from oceans see the highest temperature swings. Inner Siberia has the biggest disparities between hot and cold of any place on earth. Land heats up and cools off much faster than oceans.

 

[obx hiker]

Exactly Monte. Oceans have a moderating effect. Living next to 2 I’ve noticed that. The problem when it occurs, especially in relatively shallow and enclosed bodies of water like the Sound region of Eastern North Carolina or the Gulf of Mexico or the Persian Gulf, Red Sea and etc. is what happens when those bodies of water become hotter. Especially the effect on minimum lows. Then you have to consider your last sentence; “Land heats up and cools off much faster than oceans.”  There is no diurnal relief near these hot bodies of water. Very little cooling off at night. For example the Persian Gulf region is becoming difficult to inhabit. This causes massive political instability. Just one relatively small example. I shudder to think how the US might deal will a massive flow of refugee Gators from La Florida. They’ll probably overwhelm areas like Louisville along the beautiful Ohio River Valley. This is written only partly in jest. PS. Notice your other relatively cool spot for the continental US centered around the shallow enclosed waters of the Chesapeake Bay. That one is heating up as well leading to uncomfortable night time lows previously not experienced. PPS: Basrah and Kuwait City on the Persian Gulf are about the same latitude as Jacksonville Fla. , New Orleans, Houston.

[HkNewman]

“Won’t sea level rise put much of Florida back underwater? I fail to comprehend why anyone anywhere is purchasing ocean front property right now…”

Greater fool theory of real estate .. “someone somewhere will buy it ..” until they don’t.  Plus it’s a problem that just needs marketeering, like reimagining Florida more like Venice Italy where instead of cars there’s boats to get around.  … but with alligators to enforce better boatsmanship/swimming prowess, speedboat’s reminiscent of Miami Vice, and think there’s the odd croc in there.  Of course someone will import breeding sets of Nile crocodiles illegally to make Florida living a little more “spicy” but hey if it submerges, no more Burmese Pythons.  Note invasive species are still a problem in the US, especially in the southern regions (no, that Nile crocodile or various vipers won’t make good pets!).

 

[Mart]

Won’t sea level rise put much of Florida back underwater?

Climate alarmists have been wrong for many years. Think Paul Ehrlich’s forecasts of doom in the 60s and 70s. All of us will be dead by 1979. Miami–and all of Florida–will also be with us for a long, long time.

[Jerry Adams]

Since people aren’t taking climate warming seriously enough, there’s a tendency to have ever more dire stories about how catastrophic things will be.  Maybe this is self defeating.  And, there’s no question that climate warming is real, but a lot of uncertainty how bad it will be.

Maybe a better strategy is to tell people how alternate energy sources will actually be better.

For example, people will prefer electric cars and fossil fuel cars will be discontinued because no one wants them.  Sort of like manual transmissions.

This should start a flame war if anything will, dissing manual transmissions : )

 

[Jerry Adams]

quick slip this in before Mathew closes the thread : )

[HkNewman]

Sort of like manual transmissions.

This should start a flame war if anything will, dissing manual transmissions : )

Yeah, I’m going to say who’s in charge (?) if “drivers” don’t use manual transmission.   Man or machine? Even if I have to go outlaw in the last remaining Datsun B-210. Maybe paint on some flames and a skull/crossbones?

Honestly speaking though everyone forgets the lesson of the 1970s gasoline shortage and the 2006-ish US gas price increase.  Most consumers will go with more efficient fuel sipping autos and life will go on …. (let’s not talk about the Chevy Vega..).

[Jerry Adams]

yeah, if we just closed all oil wells and there was a huge 1970s like shortage the voters would respond by voting for climate deniers

[Mart]

Maybe a better strategy is to tell people how alternate energy sources will actually be better.

And much more expensive. Tell the single mom that has a couple of kids and works 3 part-time jobs her electric bill will triple and she’ll have to get rid of her 15-year old Impala and buy a Tesla. Sorry to burst bubbles here but the internal combustion engine is going to be with us at least another 100 years. Maybe more.

Sort of like manual transmissions.

Now HERE the science IS SETTLED. Standards? MUCH BETTER!

quick slip this in before Mathew closes the thread

NO! Don’t. This is too much fun!

 

[AK Granola]

Climate scientists (I can’t call scientists alarmists, even if their projections are sometimes incorrect, which does happen in science) have been making projections on the conservative side, turns out. One scientist I spoke with a few years ago said that pretty much all the data coming in are far worse than what was previously projected under any scenario. All those simulations can’t really predict with total accuracy. So we get a front row seat to what actually happens. I’ll tout our Alaska course again; it’s free to take: https://www.edx.org/course/climate-change-in-arctic-environments

Just watching the glaciers disappear and species fall to extinction is sad enough. OTOH I’m enjoying the warmer winters lately. Part of me worries about climate catastrophes current and future and their impact on humans, and part of me thinks we will all get what we deserve. We have big brains and insist upon not using them. Jeez, there’s a local FB group debating about UFOS! And we elect these people to rule over us, for what – better stock market returns?! We’re pretty much screwed.

I love the image of Florida as Venice with alligators. Gotta admit it sounds like an entertaining vacation.

[Jerry Adams]

Yeah, scientists are conservative and its been worse than predicted.  No one predicted it would be 116F in portland.

[Jerry Adams]

Yeah Mart – few people can afford a $50K tesla.

But I think your 100 year forecast is pessimistic, maybe 20 years before electric vehicles are better and cheaper.

But who knows…

[Mart]

But I think your 100 year forecast is pessimistic

Electric vehicles just don’t work in all applications. Long haul trucks, for instance. I pull a travel trailer with my F-150. No way can I get the range I need with electric. Then there’s getting to–and back home– from a remote trailhead. Electric doesn’t come close. There’s the environmental consequences. From manufacturing,  to mining the lithium, to end of life recycling.  Right now, the technology is just not there.

[Jerry Adams]

yeah, definitely, to all of that

batteries that use more available chemicals would be better, with higher capacity per weight/volume would be good.  A lot of people working on this

if you can recharge a battery to 80% in 30 minutes then you could do that at a rest stop.  Which is close to current capability.  If you had only 300 miles range, most railheads are within 150 miles of a city.

 

[BlackHatGuy]

“I fail to comprehend why anyone anywhere is purchasing ocean front property right now.”

Federal flood insurance might have something to do with it. We all subsidize many of these homes, including the mansions. I don’t mind people building in flood zones, more power to them. I do mind subsidizing their losses though. I’d wager that if you eliminate the federal flood insurance program (or at least raise the rates to be realistic) you’d have a lot less people building/rebuilding in flood prone areas.

[Mart]

Now, Jerry, for the important stuff. I would have loved to get my F-150 with a 5 or 6 speed manual. They’re just not available. Same thing for my Toyota Sienna. I know Toyota builds them. I’ve seen them in Mexico.

[Mart]

I do mind subsidizing their losses though.

Don’t subsidize that or anything else. If the government has to subsidize it, then it’s not ready.

[BlackHatGuy]

“Don’t subsidize that or anything else. If the government has to subsidize it, then it’s not ready.”

Sure, but in that case expect your price at the pump to skyrocket… :-)

[Monte Masterson]

Ford is spending 6 billion dollars right now on an electric car battery plant under construction in Elizabethtown, Ky. It will be the largest such facility of any auto maker in the US. I suppose Ford could be so dumb as to invest in something which isn’t going to be in demand but I doubt it. They see what’s coming, the dinosaur gas and diesel vehicles will be going the way of pay phones soon. California has mandated that all automobiles sold in the state must be electric by 2035.

Of course I know the arguments posed by those who drink the big oil Kool-Aid: “lithium batteries are as bad for the environment as burning fossil fuel” – “you’ll never have near enough charging stations” – “you can’t go over 50 miles in an electric car without needing a recharge” It’s kind of like people in the early 1900’s who used to say “if man was meant to fly he’d have wings”. Accept it, electric cars are coming regardless of the growing pains.

Demand for the Ford F-150 Lightning electric pick-up built at the Louisville truck plant has been off the charts. They had to suspend pre orders for now due to the enormous interest. https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/f150-lightning/2022/?searchid=||81982395190866|&s_kwcid=AL!2519!10!81982365311243!81982395190866&gclid=e5ff26520c5e1a8378154597c473eb7b&gclsrc=3p.ds&ef_id=YuQw-AAAAHV2QwOH:20230116215727:s

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