Amber Monfort JMT take 2

[Allen C]

Amber Monforte just posted this on the FKT site:

“Hi everyone,
Headed back out tomorrow morning sometime. Leaving from Whitney Portal. I don’t have an exact time to start due to catching a ride with the chamber of commerce and road construction.
Going solo and unsupported again….. I know I said never again, but I really love being out there alone and the added challenge.
Same basic gear setup as last time, but some minor changes to my food.
Here is a link to my delorme
share.delorme.com/ambermonforte
Amber”

I just don’t get why someone would voluntarily put themselves through this again. There must be something wrong with these people. No offense to Amber of course! ;)

[Art …]

when will you be starting Allen ?

[Allen C]

Don’t tempt me Art! I’m wishing Amber the best of luck, but I am not planning a JMT trip this year. I am not sure what her goal is but I think she has a good chance of coming in under 4 days this year if she really goes for it.

[Allen C]

Amber’s Delorme track shows she started around 5:51 am at Whitney Portal, and she was at Whitney Summit at 9:45 am. Looks like she’s off to a good start…

[Adam White]

Sorry I’m late to the party… and if you’ve been monitoring this thread for the last twenty minutes, sorry for the chaos (I ascribe it to a combination of my own incompetence, our lovely new BB software here at BPL, and Delorme’s fantastic* interface).

*it’s not

Anyhoo, Amber’s off to a good start. After refreshing myself on FKT’s along the JMT: Amber is racing herself for the women’s FKT (5d 0h 32m, from 2015), and racing Andy Bentz’ time for the FKT (3d 10h 59m 40s).

I blew the dust off the code to generate the table and profile; both are below. The new BB software here seems dead set against me linking both images to their sources, so to view the profile in higher resolution, click here:

https://ontheswitchbacks.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/amber2_jmtfkt_profile13.png

Amber is off to a good start–at Vidette Meadow, she was about 1h 45m ahead of last year’s (record-setting) run.

Her Delorme seems to be reporting fairly sporadically, so I’m interpolating a lot between the reported points. This doesn’t affect the bottom line, but might affect some of the splits.

Let the armchair analysis begin…

[Allen C]

Just FYI – on her facebook page Amber mentioned her Delorme tracker would be set to check in every 4 hours, so don’t expect updates more frequent than that…

 

[Adam White]

Updated the table and profile, through Pinchot Pass.

She’s doing great! Atop Pinchot, she was a full 4h 17m ahead of her previous time.

At this point, catching Andy Bentz is probably out of reach (she needs to average 2.82 mph for the remainder of her run to so), but she stands a great chance at improving her prior time, and setting a new women’s FKT.

[Matthew / BPL]

Very impressive!

[Adam White]

Updated the table/profile through Mather Pass.

She’s still doing great, and has increased her margin over her prior run by about 5h 50m.

Andy’s time is still slowly slipping further away–she needs to average 2.84 mph to catch him (which would be faster than Leor went from Mather to Happy Isles).

[Allen C]

Looks like she is doing great! After 29.5 hours, she is nearly 1/3 of the way done.  I’d say she is on track to finish in under 4 days which very few have done even with support. She may be gunning for Sue Johnston’s supported time of 3d 20h in 2007 – but my guess is she is just trying to break 4 days.

[Aaron Sorensen]

I’m trying to get up there next month for a sub 5 day attempt but gun for a sub 4.5 days.

It doesn’t look like she has gotten any sleep yet so she’ll either need over 6 hours of down-time tonight or 4 plus naps. If this doesn’t happen tonight, her speed is going to drop quick.

She is blazing an amazing time so far.  Even at a 4.5 day pace, that puts you on top of Muir at about 48 hours, (depending on the sleep schedule).

I will start at 4am and try to get to Reds by 7pm by the evening of day 3.  That will still be a very hard 4.5 days but you get the idea of time.

Amber is way ahead of this time.  Sub 4 is looking good, she’s on pace, but not really because of her not sleeping last night , (or at least it appears that she didn’t).  Need to really wait and see where and how the sleep pays out tonight.  A quick nap before Muir and hopefully she can make it down to lower elevations before sleeping until morning.  Not sure if she is on pace for this to work in her advantage, but if it does, it will keep her on track for that sub 4.

[Allen C]

I think she got some rest at Woods Creek last night and will sleep again tonight somewhere near MTR.

She is crushing her times from last year – She is nearly to the Bishop pass turnoff – should be there at under 36 hours and will likely be at Muir pass at about 40 hours, which is a full 10 hours faster than last year.

[Adam White]

Updated the table and profile…

At the Middle Fork Kings trail, I estimate that she was about 5h 42m ahead of last year’s time.

Based on the location/timing of her messages, I suspect she did stop multiple times last night, but not for a very significant amount of time (< 2 hours).

To go sub-4-day, she’ll need to average 2.28 mph. I added that as a black dashed line on the profile.

Last year, she took a 5 hour rest somewhere near the Middle Fork Kings/Palisade Creek junction. So sure–she could be 10 hours ahead of her time last year at Muir Pass, if she forgoes that rest, and pushes on. But that’s going to rear its head at some point.

I agree with Aaron, have to see how rest plays out tonight.

I think she’s well poised to beat last years time, but can she shave 24 hours off and go sub 4 day? Averaging 2.28 mph for the remainder of the hike–without having had any lengthy rest yet… Definitely not a gimme.

Awesome effort so far, no matter if she goes sub-4 or not.

[Adam White]

Updated the table and profile through Muir Pass; I forecast her arrival atop Muir Pass about 15 minutes after her last update.

She did a killer job getting up Muir, and is atop it after 39 hours elapsed. That’s about 11h 37m ahead of last year’s time. Of course, last year, she’d had about 10h 30m of quality rest across three stops by this point. It’s not completely clear this year, but I suspect she’s had two stops with < 2 hours of stoppage time. Clearly, she has a different strategy regarding rest this year–it will be very interesting to see how it plays out.

In the meantime, awesome effort. Absolutely still a contender for going sub-4, but she’s going to need some rest, and she’s going to have to move quickly when she’s not resting.

[Adam White]

Table and profile updated through the MTR cut-off.

She did stop for some rest last night; my guess is that she stopped for around an hour somewhere in Evolution Basin, then stopped for 3h 30m or slightly less in Evolution Valley.

She looks to be moving great after resting.

She’s about 9h ahead of her time last year, and has had a few hours less rest.

At the halfway point, she’s slightly behind pace to do a sub-4 day, but that’s not particularly telling. More telling is that: to go sub-4-day, she’ll have to continue to move like she did on the first half, without adding much rest–she’ll have to average 2.41 mph for the remainder of the hike, which is about what she averaged on the first half (before stopping to rest last night).

I’ve seen very few of these (none?) where the second half went faster than the first. Typically, another significant rest is needed somewhere around Red’s, and even if you’re moving well, you’re not moving as fast as you did in the first 50 miles, when your legs were fresh. That second rest knocks down the average speed fairly significantly.

So sub-4-day looks to be right on the cusp of doable, but will be quite a challenge. Smashing her old record looks to be well in hand. Plenty of miles left for either of those to change, of course, but a really awesome effort up to this point.

[Allen C]

Looks like she got a few hours of sleep last night (I’m guessing 3-4 hours but it is hard to tell for sure with the 4 hour updates) and is passing by MTR at 51h elapsed time, or about 8:45 this morning. This is about 9 hours ahead of last year and she should be feeling great after 2 full REM cycles and a refreshing dip in Evolution Creek!

I am going to go out on a limb and predict she will crush the 2nd half and finish between 96-100 hours total, after one more 3 hour rest somewhere near Red’s Meadow tonight.

[Adam White]

I am going to go out on a limb and predict she will crush the 2nd half and finish between 96-100 hours total, after one more 3 hour rest somewhere near Red’s Meadow tonight.

I think our posts crossed in cyberspace, but I think this is a pretty good prediction. I don’t know Amber, but I think most will need a bit more rest than 3 hours. Still, if one assumes she moves at 2.6 mph, and takes a 6 hour rest, that would bring her in at around 99h 8m. Put another way, she’d average 2.29 mph for the rest of the hike, which doesn’t seem unrealistic.

Now I’m going to go back to stuffing my fat face with french toast.

[Adam White]

Updated table and profile…

She did about 2.06 mph up Selden Pass. She’s about 9h 12m ahead of last year’s pace.

[Adam White]

Updated table and profile through Silver Pass (which I forecast ahead of the last message, at 9:10 PM).

Looking great to smash her previous record–she’s 17h 27m ahead of her prior time.

 

[Allen C]

Looks like she got a few hours of sleep last night and should be arriving at Reds Meadow any minute now. She is at 74 hours or so with about 56 miles to go (projected). If she is targeting 96 hours she has 22 hours to go 56 miles, much of it downhill on easier terrain. This is a pace of 2.54 mph which is faster than her average so far but may be possible. If she is targeting 100 hours she would need to average 2.15 mph which is slower than her pace so far. I’m thinking my 96-100 hour prediction is looking pretty good right now.

 

[Adam White]

Updated through the Middle Fork San Joaquin crossing, near Red’s.

She did GREAT on the descent into Red’s, which shows that her legs aren’t complete jelly–she can move quickly on the downhills. That could be a tremendous asset on the descent from Donohue to Happy Isles.

To finish in sub-4, she’d need to do the last 57.75 miles in 20h 50m, which is 2.77 mph. Even with quick legs on the downhills, I think that’s going to be quite difficult.

Another challenge is the timing. If she keeps on at the pace she’s been going, she’ll hit darkness in Lyell Canyon. Will she be able to take advantage of a speedy descent from Cathedral Pass to Happy Isles if it’s dark out, or will darkness (and the associated hallucinations and other mental depravities) clamp her speed along the descent? Thus far, her descents under darkness were not very quick, but since they were often interspersed with breaks, it’s hard to tell if it’s because she was moving slower.

Unless she’s really been saving herself for the final push, I think 96h is probably not in the cards. 98h – 100h, maybe. That assumes she goes restless for the remainder.

She’s about 16h 7m ahead of her time last year–well poised to smash her old record. And just an awesome effort. I can’t imagine the mental toughness it takes to see one of these through. Go go go!

[Allen C]

At 6:10 pm she was near the Rush Creek junction. I’m going to project she reaches there at 6:45 which would be roughly 85h, with about 39 mostly easy miles remaining. Last year she did this section in 16 hours and 20 minutes.

This year she has been about 20% faster than last year for the first 185 miles. If she can do the last 40 miles just a bit more than 10% faster than last year, she will finish in about 15 hours (ie at 9:45 am tomorrow) which would put her at exactly 100 hours. Should be a nail-biter!

[Adam White]

Well, an unexpected message from her DeLorme just over Donohue–table and profile updated above.

I think I’m in pretty good agreement with your predictions, Allen.

She’s at 86h 10m atop Donohue. Last year, she took 14h 28m to finish from here. If she keeps the same pace this time, that puts her at a 100h 38m.

Can she go faster than last year? She has so far, but she went pretty fast last year on this section–she didn’t leave a ton of room for improvement. To go sub-100 she’ll have to average about 2.55 mph. She’s going to have to let it rip on the downhills a bit to do that–she’ll need splits that are north of 3 mph coming down from Donohue, and descending to Happy Isles.

Could happen… You’re right, it’s gonna be a nail-biter!

She’ll definitely set a new record. The question is: Will she be satisfied with it, or will we* do this again next year?

*We can take some credit, but Amber’s probably done most of the heavy lifting

It’s crazy to me that she’s on the home stretch–“almost done”–and she still has to go further than most have (or ever will) hike in a day. Brutal, awesome, endeavor.

[Allen C]

My guess is this means she hit her Check-in/OK button on Donahue, which to me means she is feeling good and wants to let everyone know she is going to finish strong. I think she is totally capable of 12h from Donahue (even after 189 miles) which would put her at HI at 8:10 am. She has been training for the JMT this year and knows the trail much better from both her trip last year and section hiking it this year.

She is very competitive and is surely aware that 100 hours is within range but 96h would be pretty tough to beat at this point. So I’m predicting she finishes in under 100 hours – 98.5-99.5 hours is a safe bet I would say. Go Amber!

[Allen C]

Amber is now in the homestretch. At 6:43 AM – 97h elapsed time – she was at “Sunrise Pass” with about 11 (?) miles to go, nearly all of it downhill. She has the advantage of full daylight and cool morning temperatures, but will have to dodge hordes of Half Dome hikers and tourists wielding selfie sticks and double-wide strollers as she approaches Happy Isles. This is going to be a close one folks! Will she rally and sprint past half dome and down the final paved trail for the sub 100hour finish? I still think she has it in her.

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