I think it was two years ago I did a study on compression. Compression ratios of 30:1, sometimes more up to 40:1, are possible by hand. This does not have any effect on a bags performance once it is removed and shaken out, given clean and dry down. This was based on a targeted audience of 54 backpackers using high lofting down from the backbackinglight e-mail list.
Generally I agree with Richard. Mostly, the lofting is not that important compared to the insulating effect of the feathers themselves. But I disagree that it has no effect. My 40F bag, for example is fine, extended down to 30F, with multiple layers I got cold. Reducing the layers by one, and I was *warmer*. Why? About 5 years ago I posed this question, and the vast majority agreed that it was due to compressing the bags loft. I think I will go with direct experience. I have since reduced the bulk of my old bulkey down jacket(500FP) with an 800FP down sweater, rated about the same temp. Now I sleep comfortably down to about 25F. Same layers on my legs and feet in general.
The EN ratings also allow for this. The maximum fill allowed is 800. But, allowing for the differing insulation effects of varieties of duck and goose, the insulation effect can be higher, *WITHOUT* changing the loft. Or, conversly, compressing the down can mean loss of loft with the same insulating effect. This is one of the reasons I much prefer the EN ratings. Somewhere, I was reading that Eider down will insulate to the *equivalent* of 900FP under this system, even though it only lofts to 800. Goose down varies, but generally insulates about 800 when it lofts to 800FP.
Anyway, lofting is the most important variable in retaining heat, but not the only variable. Else, we could simply use an air filled sleeping bag.
Heat conduction within a down fiber is important(the thickness and length of any barbules.) How much dead air it traps is important (the number of barbules and barbs.) As well as the angle at which the plumes interlock. The age of the bird the down was taken from. The condition of the bird. And so on…lots of variables, not simple loft, though this is easiest to sell.
Overfill? That is just a way of saying filling a bag that was improperly filled to begin with, or, for those that will be using their bag heavily on a three month trek. Down is forgiving. Once it has reached it's maximum loft, it is usual to add a half ounce to two ounces to make sure of any unevenness in batches. Cheap outfits will not do that. I suspect you could overfill a top quality bag by two or three times what they have and not see two or three times its performance. Down should not be loose in the chambers, nor be tight. Adding a bit may indeed help a little by trapping smaller pockets of air, yielding some small, as you say linear, increase in insulating value. This is not economic nor commercially feasable for most companies. the competition for light weight for best performance is just too great. This is where most companies stop their fill. So, Richards findings are likely accurate, but have little meaning to a commercial company. Though WM and others still offer overfilling as an option.
Like Dan was saying, older bags were less concerned with lofting since they were likely a poorer grade of feathers. Heavy fabrics, plastic liners inside canvas shells for example, were also typically heavy. They performed well enough to get people to the south pole! Newer stuff is better…and more fragile.