"We may encounter some rain/snow, but if the weather forecast is not looking good I will probably not be going."
But that's when all of the winter fun is! :)
Looks good overall. You might need to add another foam pad if camping directly on frozen ground or ice, but try not to do that.
Use a good DWR on your pants. I like Granger's wash-in. I always wash outdoor clothing in a sports detergent which doesn't degrade DWR like most detergents do.
You'll probably want a warmer jacket, although you could slide by if you don't take long breaks and sit around a campfire in camp. Or, you could stuff your sleeping bag inside your shell layer jacket. I have a similar jacket I use down to around 30F. After that, I use a cheap down jacket I found at Meijer for around $25 a few years ago. That's good down to around 10F with other layers.
Waterproof gaiters are a good thing to have in the snow, and they keep legs (and thus feet) warmer.
For gloves, two pairs of military surplus wool liners are great and cheap. Keep one pair drying in your jacket/shirt. Slap them against a gaiter, leg, or smooth tree to give them a fast start on drying. This usually works well enough to make them feel warm again. This works well for hats and socks. For a shell, I use a pair of leather insulated Wells work gloves which I cut the liner out of and sprayed with a silicone-base water repellent.
You'll likely want a fleece or acrylic balaclava below 20F for sleeping and around camp.
Non-waterproof trail runners should probably be used with GoreTex socks. That's what I use down to around 15-20F. Below 20-25F, consider using large size oven bags as vapor barrier socks under your wool socks. Wear a polypro or polyester liner under the VB. This will keep your socks dry and your feet warmer from both the dry socks and from no evaporative heat loss.
Make sure no clothing fits tight. Blood circulation is what keeps your hands and feet warm, so work with it.
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