2016 PCT Thru-Hike; Convince Me re: Start Date

Keep an eye on http://adzpctko.org (annual day zero pct kick off) as well). They base their date around snow conditions and will help give you an idea of a good time to start. Given the number of people on the trail they encourage hikers to start independently of their event but it will still help you pick your date, a couple of weeks before should be fine.

On logistics, if you shop in towns along the trail rather than mailing all your supplies it keeps the trip much more flexible, both in terms of pace and what you are going to eat and how much. There are a couple of spots you need to mail yourself supplies but that can easily be done from two stops ahead. Enjoy.

The new permit system does make it difficult for hikers to time based on snow levels – it looks like most of the April permits were gone within 1 day of the system opening up.  Since it looks like it will be an average to high snow year, a March start seems too early unless you plan on going very slow AND are prepared to deal with snow in higher elevation areas of SoCal.  If I had to commit at this point, I’d probably use the traditional June 15 Sierra entry date and then back-calculate with your best guess at daily mileage and number of zeros for SoCal.  Also consider whether you’re willing (and can afford) to hang out in Mojave/Tehachapi or KM for a while if you end up ahead of schedule or if the snow is still too high as you approach Kennedy Meadows.

I think folks have provided some excellent feedback.  This year is shaping up to be the biggest snow year since 2011.  I started early (April 18) in 2006. another big snow year.  I some of the toughest snow conditions on Mt San Jacinto and Fuller Ridge.  So in addition to following http://www.postholer for Sierra conditions, I recommend following the Mt San Jacinto hiking forum to track conditions in this area (www.mtsanjacinto.info).  If I were northbounding this year I probably would not start before May 1.

2010 was a pretty good snow year. By the time I got out of the the Sierra I was tired of it.  You say you don’t mind slow, but by the time you get to the Seirra you will probably be thinking a little more seriously about how many miles you have to hit every day. Besides the overall trip goals there is the question of how much you are going to be carrying and where you are going to resupply going through. This is a long roadless stretch. Along with the slower walking more snow can also make route finding harder. In the upper basins it is not that big a deal, just slog towards the pass. But the more snow there is the lower it goes and in the woods it can be a lot trickier and slow you down a lot. And if you are one of the front runners you will not have the benefit of those who have gone before you. This goes for the San Jancintos too. They were a pain to get through and I started behind the pack. A lot of those who started ahead ended up hitching and skipping around because of conditions.

So, going early in a snow year can be done but it will not only slow you down but beat you up more and could leave you pretty worn out by the time you get through.

@jpapini wrote “If I’m walking on top of it, what does it matter if there are 4′ or 40’…” — you’re right, it doesn’t matter.  The depth of the snowpack doesn’t matter, the breadth of it does.  So if you’re walking on 40′ of it at some point, you could loose 4000′ and still be on snow, walk 60 miles and still be on snow, etc.  A big snow year is challenging because the snow continues down into the valleys — not limited to couple miles either side of 12,000′ foot passes.  The other thing I’ll mention is that hiking on snow is ‘slow’, yes, but it’s slow because it’s *hard* work.  It’s not slow in the abstract, it’s slow because your legs can’t do the same work they can do on dry trail — for the same reason carrying a 50 lbs pack is ‘slow’.

I suggest listening to Nick’s advise regarding the Fuller Ridge snow pack (PCT mile 190) on Mt. San Jacinto.  Fuller Ridge is not a fun place to be in bad conditions, as the number of SAR missions to rescue hikers every year make that abundantly clear.  You will be at Fuller Ridge about a week from leaving Campo and if its loaded with snow when you arrive, consider the option of detouring around it.